"Next 25 Years in Tourist-reliant developing Countries will make the Khmer Rouge Years seem like purse snatching
-
- 5 minutes to kill
- Reactions: 3
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 8:39 pm
"Next 25 Years in Tourist-reliant developing Countries will make the Khmer Rouge Years seem like purse snatching
It's gonna get messy.
I have a friend that's an Econ data science researcher at Stanford, and they're going to release a paper sometime this week on COVID impact in developing countries. They used an AI to predict scenarios. They run the data hundreds of times, and he's noting what most AI scenarios predict like they did with this last US election--google "Election scenarios predicted by AI). He hasn't texted me in over a year, but just sent me what I initially took to be a "drunk text," or prank, but he said it was not.
In short, there's going to be at a minimum a twenty-five-year impact, but more likely a 40-50 year impact because of lockdowns in virtually any developing country reliant on tourism of a certain amount, and kids who couldn't afford school this year are never going back. So in 25 years, you're going to have a far less educated population than today.
Poor countries that didn't have tourists in the first place will still take over 15 years to get back to where they were pre-COVID economically, but countries reliant on tourism are looking at compounding knock-on effects--from a bunch of directions. Westerners in their countries will go to "safe" locations near home with "all-inclusive" type setups for holiday. Factories may not leave yet but virtually none will come and build factories and such.
Charity/NGO money will stop as even the US will take over 7 years to recover, same with Europe. Poor people borrowed a lot of money (to them) in rural areas in most developing countries, he says. The grandchildren of people who borrowed $5000 in the last year will still be paying off that debt (due to no tourism for 20 years). Education is poor, people in dev. world don't tend to understand compounding interest, and it's unlikely the banks will not want their interest payments.
The first starvations will start in about 18 months and rise exponentially for 10 years, possibly 1 million starvation deaths per 10 million people. Not clear if that's total or per year, and he hasn't gotten back to me. But he said to GTFO now
Most results fed into their AI kept repeating several things over and over I guess: bandits commandeering jets, packing the planes with their village, and demanding the planes fly to Korea or Japan even Australia--some will crash, some will get shot down. Virtually every foreigner, if still here in 18 months will be held for ransom, the ones with no relatives with cash are going to be killed, as the locals have practice not fucking around with useless prisoners, so the ransom or money or mass grave will be fast and efficient, they won't be holding you prisoner for months or years like Columbian or Filipino guerillas. Other than the GSM foreign drunks, they'll survive like Rasputin. (this last sentence was my personal edit)
Mass rushes for land borders, MOAB-type bombs dropped along the border by China to prevent mass influx. 5% of scenarios had China using tactical nukes, triggering US, Korea, Japan to flatten Beijing and Shanghai in response. Oddly, China launches nukes, but not at the US. Only Australia, Korea, and Japan. He said the only good news they got out of feeding the scenario data AI was that in 3% of scenarios, it predicted extraterrestrials disable all nukes but let a conventional war happen.
I said he was full of shit, and using the word aliens disqualifies him from any credibility. He said they won't publish most of the scenarios or even the starvation which he said was 98% sure to happen.
But he got me to read the AI election prediction scenarios, and one was scary accurate except got the parties wrong. It said Trump would win but be caught rigging voting machines and seen as illegitimate.
The thing is, he says the AI has gotten 1000x more accurate since the election. I don't want to dox my buddy, but the Stanford Data Science department isn't that big. He didn't say anything about it being classified, so what the hell, Do with the info what you will. I texted him asking for the percentages of various scenario items like kidnapping foreigners for ransom, because first of all he wrote in all caps, and it was hard to read. He should be waking up and maybe three hours, will update.
I have a friend that's an Econ data science researcher at Stanford, and they're going to release a paper sometime this week on COVID impact in developing countries. They used an AI to predict scenarios. They run the data hundreds of times, and he's noting what most AI scenarios predict like they did with this last US election--google "Election scenarios predicted by AI). He hasn't texted me in over a year, but just sent me what I initially took to be a "drunk text," or prank, but he said it was not.
In short, there's going to be at a minimum a twenty-five-year impact, but more likely a 40-50 year impact because of lockdowns in virtually any developing country reliant on tourism of a certain amount, and kids who couldn't afford school this year are never going back. So in 25 years, you're going to have a far less educated population than today.
Poor countries that didn't have tourists in the first place will still take over 15 years to get back to where they were pre-COVID economically, but countries reliant on tourism are looking at compounding knock-on effects--from a bunch of directions. Westerners in their countries will go to "safe" locations near home with "all-inclusive" type setups for holiday. Factories may not leave yet but virtually none will come and build factories and such.
Charity/NGO money will stop as even the US will take over 7 years to recover, same with Europe. Poor people borrowed a lot of money (to them) in rural areas in most developing countries, he says. The grandchildren of people who borrowed $5000 in the last year will still be paying off that debt (due to no tourism for 20 years). Education is poor, people in dev. world don't tend to understand compounding interest, and it's unlikely the banks will not want their interest payments.
The first starvations will start in about 18 months and rise exponentially for 10 years, possibly 1 million starvation deaths per 10 million people. Not clear if that's total or per year, and he hasn't gotten back to me. But he said to GTFO now
Most results fed into their AI kept repeating several things over and over I guess: bandits commandeering jets, packing the planes with their village, and demanding the planes fly to Korea or Japan even Australia--some will crash, some will get shot down. Virtually every foreigner, if still here in 18 months will be held for ransom, the ones with no relatives with cash are going to be killed, as the locals have practice not fucking around with useless prisoners, so the ransom or money or mass grave will be fast and efficient, they won't be holding you prisoner for months or years like Columbian or Filipino guerillas. Other than the GSM foreign drunks, they'll survive like Rasputin. (this last sentence was my personal edit)
Mass rushes for land borders, MOAB-type bombs dropped along the border by China to prevent mass influx. 5% of scenarios had China using tactical nukes, triggering US, Korea, Japan to flatten Beijing and Shanghai in response. Oddly, China launches nukes, but not at the US. Only Australia, Korea, and Japan. He said the only good news they got out of feeding the scenario data AI was that in 3% of scenarios, it predicted extraterrestrials disable all nukes but let a conventional war happen.
I said he was full of shit, and using the word aliens disqualifies him from any credibility. He said they won't publish most of the scenarios or even the starvation which he said was 98% sure to happen.
But he got me to read the AI election prediction scenarios, and one was scary accurate except got the parties wrong. It said Trump would win but be caught rigging voting machines and seen as illegitimate.
The thing is, he says the AI has gotten 1000x more accurate since the election. I don't want to dox my buddy, but the Stanford Data Science department isn't that big. He didn't say anything about it being classified, so what the hell, Do with the info what you will. I texted him asking for the percentages of various scenario items like kidnapping foreigners for ransom, because first of all he wrote in all caps, and it was hard to read. He should be waking up and maybe three hours, will update.
2
2
-
- 5 minutes to kill
- Reactions: 3
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 8:39 pm
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/1 ... cks-414934
https://scitechdaily.com/covid-19-pande ... countries/
Here is an article on the AI predictions two weeks BEFORE the US election:
https://www.natlawreview.com/article/el ... on-outcome
https://scitechdaily.com/covid-19-pande ... countries/
Here is an article on the AI predictions two weeks BEFORE the US election:
https://www.natlawreview.com/article/el ... on-outcome
- Starving Pelican
- I am a Special Snowflake !!?!
- Reactions: 83
- Posts: 5850
- Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2006 1:21 pm
- Location: Cat Food Paradise
- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
- Reactions: 218
- Posts: 1415
- Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:33 pm
Mate, I clicked on one of your articles, went to the to see the final result and the prediction was Nancy Pelosi as President of the USA on January 20 2021.
.................is this AI the same that Rudy Giuliani used to devise the Trump campaign's legal strategy?
.................is this AI the same that Rudy Giuliani used to devise the Trump campaign's legal strategy?
I'll have what Hooplehead's having
She (Ryan) never actually said that line though.Meg Ryan wrote: ↑Mon Jun 28, 2021 9:08 pmI'll have what Hooplehead's having
pew, pew, pew, pew!
hooplehead wrote: ↑Mon Jun 28, 2021 6:29 pmI texted him asking for the percentages of various scenario items like kidnapping foreigners for ransom, because first of all he wrote in all caps, and it was hard to read. He should be waking up and maybe three hours, will update.
The streams of consciousness nonsense that precedes this telling last couple of lines now makes sense. Or, at least, it is now more understandable that it exists.
If your Stanford University high-flying research friend is the sort of chap who communicates using ALL CAPS, then he clearly has some mental health problems and it's probably not worth considering his raving predictions.
"Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach. Those who can't teach, teach English."
Credit Jacked Camry & LTO
Credit Jacked Camry & LTO
- Lucky Lucan
- K440 Knight Captain
- Reactions: 761
- Posts: 22525
- Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2011 12:24 pm
- Location: The Pearl of the Orient
- Lucky Lucan
- K440 Knight Captain
- Reactions: 761
- Posts: 22525
- Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2011 12:24 pm
- Location: The Pearl of the Orient
Don't get into Crystal Meth, it's never a good idea. Just take LSD or mushrooms or anything else but don't do what this fruitcake has become deranged on.Meg Ryan wrote: ↑Mon Jun 28, 2021 9:08 pmI'll have what Hooplehead's having
Romantic Cambodia is dead and gone. It's with McKinley in the grave.
Even if you're not in a tourist area you don't know where we will be (as humanity) in 25 years. We, Humans fucked up the entire planet. Leading countries putting most of their monies into weapons of mass destruction and most people don't give a fiddlers fart about the enviroment as long as they're comfortable. On the CO?NTROL side of Humanity we're seeing a choce between totalitarism and communism, both not really that satisfactory to human needs. Perhaps some AI would do a better job ? The way humanity is currently doing doesn't look promising to me. Short term gains outrace longterm benefits. Who gives a fuck about tomorrow ? Politicians should be replaced by "more intelligent" octopusses (not octopussies you fool). They're smarter than most of us anyway.
-
- Similar Topics
- Replies
- Views
- Last post
-
- 11 Replies
- 2417 Views
-
Last post by scobienz
Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:35 pm
-
- 5 Replies
- 1381 Views
-
Last post by Miguelito
Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:27 pm
-
-
Riverside-ish New Years Eve late meal
by OldOldGuy » Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:22 pm » in Cambodia Speakeasy - 0 Replies
- 1131 Views
-
Last post by OldOldGuy
Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:22 pm
-
-
-
44 Years Since Evacuation of Cambodian Cities
by Bong Burgundy » Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:20 pm » in Cambodian History and Culture - 8 Replies
- 3071 Views
-
Last post by Lucky Lucan
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:12 am
-
-
- 40 Replies
- 6018 Views
-
Last post by Lucky Lucan
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:13 pm