Ukraine
Dugin is a bogeyman in the west. He is totally marginal in Russia and nobody in the Kremlin takes him seriously. He did receive a lot of attention and sympathy in Russia after the Ukrainian terrorist state used a car bomb to murder his daughter.
Although I can see Dugin writing something like that in a Telegram message because he is a nutjob and also because Putin refuses to prosecute this war in a serious manner.
Although I can see Dugin writing something like that in a Telegram message because he is a nutjob and also because Putin refuses to prosecute this war in a serious manner.
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- Sonic1
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The real terrorists. Orc brains on display here.
Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
A couple of pundits on Russian TV do not represent or speak for the Kremlin nor are they anymore aware of what the Kremlin is planning than you or I.
One can only hope this was accidental but however which way they spin it, it changes the complexion of the war.
It will be interesting how Moscow deals with the flak from this incident and their reaction will clearly show if there was intent, even though it is a given they will claim otherwise.
Increasingly likely NATO will become more involved in this war as Russia have really pushka the envelope this time.
It will be interesting how Moscow deals with the flak from this incident and their reaction will clearly show if there was intent, even though it is a given they will claim otherwise.
Increasingly likely NATO will become more involved in this war as Russia have really pushka the envelope this time.
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"Not my circus, not my monkeys" - KiR
NATO Article 5
"Nato membership allows a nation to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to call for support from the other members of the alliance. This article has only been used once in Nato’s history – by the US, following the attacks on New York and Washington DC on September 11, 2001.
But Article 5 does not guarantee that all the other Nato states would send armed forces to repel an attack, only that military action is an option which can be included as part of the alliance’s principle of “collective defence”. Given public statements from Westminster, the UK would be expected to honour its obligation to fight a Russian attack. As the UK’s health secretary, Sajid Javid, said only a few days ago in an interview on LBC: “If a single Russian toecap steps into Nato territory there will be war with Nato.”
On 25 February, one day after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, Nato heads of government met in Brussels. They produced a statement deploring the invasion and pledging aid for Ukraine. The alliance pledged to “continue to take all measures and decisions required to ensure the security and defence of all allies”. Accordingly, Nato has deployed both land and maritime assets across its eastern regions and “activated NATO’s defence plans to prepare ourselves to respond to a range of contingencies and secure alliance territory”.
My research on Nato has involved informal discussions with several officers from various member nations. This has led me to believe that some Nato countries further from the conflict zone might be reluctant to send combat forces – even in the event that Article 5 is triggered. There is also the question of whether Nato’s political leaders would be willing to carry out attacks on Russian soil, which would represent a significant intensification of the conflict and would carry the additional risk that Russia might respond by escalating to nuclear or chemical weapons.
Deterrence – whether conventional or nuclear – requires rational calculation by both sides. As I have written before, Putin’s rationality is different to that of western leaders, which is part of the reason why this crisis and conflict happened in the first place. So far, Putin has not been deterred by Nato. Instead, he has threatened the alliance with “consequences you have never seen in history”.
Meanwhile, any concessions Russia wins in peace talks are likely to lead to more demands. This particularly worries Nato’s eastern European members. What is not clear is whether more distant members of Nato see the threat in the same way. Unity of action is vital for Nato – not only now but in the coming weeks and months".
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-ne ... -article-5
"Nato membership allows a nation to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to call for support from the other members of the alliance. This article has only been used once in Nato’s history – by the US, following the attacks on New York and Washington DC on September 11, 2001.
But Article 5 does not guarantee that all the other Nato states would send armed forces to repel an attack, only that military action is an option which can be included as part of the alliance’s principle of “collective defence”. Given public statements from Westminster, the UK would be expected to honour its obligation to fight a Russian attack. As the UK’s health secretary, Sajid Javid, said only a few days ago in an interview on LBC: “If a single Russian toecap steps into Nato territory there will be war with Nato.”
On 25 February, one day after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, Nato heads of government met in Brussels. They produced a statement deploring the invasion and pledging aid for Ukraine. The alliance pledged to “continue to take all measures and decisions required to ensure the security and defence of all allies”. Accordingly, Nato has deployed both land and maritime assets across its eastern regions and “activated NATO’s defence plans to prepare ourselves to respond to a range of contingencies and secure alliance territory”.
My research on Nato has involved informal discussions with several officers from various member nations. This has led me to believe that some Nato countries further from the conflict zone might be reluctant to send combat forces – even in the event that Article 5 is triggered. There is also the question of whether Nato’s political leaders would be willing to carry out attacks on Russian soil, which would represent a significant intensification of the conflict and would carry the additional risk that Russia might respond by escalating to nuclear or chemical weapons.
Deterrence – whether conventional or nuclear – requires rational calculation by both sides. As I have written before, Putin’s rationality is different to that of western leaders, which is part of the reason why this crisis and conflict happened in the first place. So far, Putin has not been deterred by Nato. Instead, he has threatened the alliance with “consequences you have never seen in history”.
Meanwhile, any concessions Russia wins in peace talks are likely to lead to more demands. This particularly worries Nato’s eastern European members. What is not clear is whether more distant members of Nato see the threat in the same way. Unity of action is vital for Nato – not only now but in the coming weeks and months".
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-ne ... -article-5
"Not my circus, not my monkeys" - KiR
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I doubt NATO would risk all-out war over what is obviously an accident
They can get much more value out of the publicity at zero expense via their media
They can get much more value out of the publicity at zero expense via their media
- Prahok
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Russia is keen to distance itself from the incident: https://www.rt.com/russia/566589-russia ... on-poland/
If the strikes in Poland were from Russian missiles I anticipate a measured response along the lines of extending the Polish air-defence zone to cover large parts of Western Ukraine and possibly an increase in the range & capacity of weapon systems supplied to Ukraine.
If they were mis-fires from Ukrainian air-defence then something similar may be enacted, though with much reduced coverage.
Either way, it will be an interesting 48 hours.
If the strikes in Poland were from Russian missiles I anticipate a measured response along the lines of extending the Polish air-defence zone to cover large parts of Western Ukraine and possibly an increase in the range & capacity of weapon systems supplied to Ukraine.
If they were mis-fires from Ukrainian air-defence then something similar may be enacted, though with much reduced coverage.
Either way, it will be an interesting 48 hours.
excerpts from Aljazeera:
US congresswoman calls for calm
US Congresswoman Elaine Luria has urged calm amid calls to invoke NATO’s collective defence pact, Article Five.
“Those calling for NATO to invoke Article 5 after the attack in Poland, do not understand NATO and should not be taken seriously. Russia is losing the war, and unless this was a deliberate attack, calm is required,” Luria wrote on Twitter.
Zelenskyy says Russian missiles hit Poland in ‘significant escalation’ of conflict
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Russian missiles hit Poland, a NATO country, in a “significant escalation” of the conflict.
Zelenskyy did not provide evidence of the strikes.
Explosions in Poland could mean war has spilled into NATO territory: AJ correspondent
Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull, reporting from Kyiv, says reports that Russian missiles crossed into Poland would, if confirmed, “be the very first time that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has directly spilled over onto NATO territory”.
Hull added it was possible those missiles had “missed their targets, overshot their targets, or were pushed off course by Ukrainian air defences”.
“But I think we need to be very, very careful about speculating along those lines until the details of the attack become clearer,” he said.
US congresswoman calls for calm
US Congresswoman Elaine Luria has urged calm amid calls to invoke NATO’s collective defence pact, Article Five.
“Those calling for NATO to invoke Article 5 after the attack in Poland, do not understand NATO and should not be taken seriously. Russia is losing the war, and unless this was a deliberate attack, calm is required,” Luria wrote on Twitter.
Zelenskyy says Russian missiles hit Poland in ‘significant escalation’ of conflict
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Russian missiles hit Poland, a NATO country, in a “significant escalation” of the conflict.
Zelenskyy did not provide evidence of the strikes.
Explosions in Poland could mean war has spilled into NATO territory: AJ correspondent
Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull, reporting from Kyiv, says reports that Russian missiles crossed into Poland would, if confirmed, “be the very first time that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has directly spilled over onto NATO territory”.
Hull added it was possible those missiles had “missed their targets, overshot their targets, or were pushed off course by Ukrainian air defences”.
“But I think we need to be very, very careful about speculating along those lines until the details of the attack become clearer,” he said.
Yeah, right, taking out the EU power link to Ukraine on Polish territory "is obviously an accident".pullring wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:22 amI doubt NATO would risk all-out war over what is obviously an accident
They can get much more value out of the publicity at zero expense via their media
- Prahok
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End of Week 38 of the Russo-Ukrainian War as the battle-field realigns following Russia’s withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnieper.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. Russia attempted a cross-border assault near Kharkiv however it was repelled. The area suffered a large Russian missile assault last night during which there were reportedly two strikes in an agricultural area of Poland. Russia denies involvement and as of writing the Poles are investigating to determine the source of the strikes.
There were no changes in relation to the posture of Belarusian or joint Belarus-Russia forces. The military commissar of the Brest region reportedly tendered for the printing of 50,000 registration forms for mobilization, however this appears more theatre than action.
Along the Luhansk front there were continued advances by Ukraine towards Svatove through the week. Russia is moving many mobilised soldiers to this front which is increasing Russian casualties and no doubt slowing Ukrainian advances.
In Donetsk there is an expectation of a marked increase in fighting as significant Russian forces from Kherson move into the area. Russia continues attacking Bakhmut with some reported minor progress to the South of the town. Further South Russia continued to have some minor success near Adviika. The Russian offensive near Vuhledar continued with Russia reportedly moving into Pavlika, though as it sits in the valley below Vuhledar it is reportedly a kill-zone and as such it is unclear if Russian forces will remain there if they are unable to advance into Vuhledar.
In Zaporizhzhia there were no reported changes, though Russian troop numbers in Melitopol have reportedly increased.
In Kherson, Russia withdrew fully from the right bank of the Dnieper, ceding all of Northern Kherson Oblast to Ukraine. Much equipment and ammunition was left behind as well as some troops, however on balance a successful withdrawal was achieved. Zelensky visited Kherson City a few days later and held a public ceremony in front of the city hall. Ukrainian forces spent much of the week clearing villages and towns in the area.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. Russia attempted a cross-border assault near Kharkiv however it was repelled. The area suffered a large Russian missile assault last night during which there were reportedly two strikes in an agricultural area of Poland. Russia denies involvement and as of writing the Poles are investigating to determine the source of the strikes.
There were no changes in relation to the posture of Belarusian or joint Belarus-Russia forces. The military commissar of the Brest region reportedly tendered for the printing of 50,000 registration forms for mobilization, however this appears more theatre than action.
Along the Luhansk front there were continued advances by Ukraine towards Svatove through the week. Russia is moving many mobilised soldiers to this front which is increasing Russian casualties and no doubt slowing Ukrainian advances.
In Donetsk there is an expectation of a marked increase in fighting as significant Russian forces from Kherson move into the area. Russia continues attacking Bakhmut with some reported minor progress to the South of the town. Further South Russia continued to have some minor success near Adviika. The Russian offensive near Vuhledar continued with Russia reportedly moving into Pavlika, though as it sits in the valley below Vuhledar it is reportedly a kill-zone and as such it is unclear if Russian forces will remain there if they are unable to advance into Vuhledar.
In Zaporizhzhia there were no reported changes, though Russian troop numbers in Melitopol have reportedly increased.
In Kherson, Russia withdrew fully from the right bank of the Dnieper, ceding all of Northern Kherson Oblast to Ukraine. Much equipment and ammunition was left behind as well as some troops, however on balance a successful withdrawal was achieved. Zelensky visited Kherson City a few days later and held a public ceremony in front of the city hall. Ukrainian forces spent much of the week clearing villages and towns in the area.
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My money is on a S-300 Ukrainian missile air defence that missed target.
Unfortunate, but largely unavoidale at some point during these heavy attacks of Ukrainian infrastructure near the border.
Minimum result- the much called for air defense systems from NATO will arrive quickly, probably more systems brought to NATO/Ukraine borders with permission to fire into Ukrainian airspace at anything that comes within 50km or so.
Maximum result- a 'no fly zone' from Kyiv westwards, with NATO combat patrols deployed. Risky, but at least not much is left of the VVS for Top Gun style engagements.
If it does turn out to be a Russian or DPM launch, the result would probably be similar, but some worse rhetoric.
Unfortunate, but largely unavoidale at some point during these heavy attacks of Ukrainian infrastructure near the border.
Minimum result- the much called for air defense systems from NATO will arrive quickly, probably more systems brought to NATO/Ukraine borders with permission to fire into Ukrainian airspace at anything that comes within 50km or so.
Maximum result- a 'no fly zone' from Kyiv westwards, with NATO combat patrols deployed. Risky, but at least not much is left of the VVS for Top Gun style engagements.
If it does turn out to be a Russian or DPM launch, the result would probably be similar, but some worse rhetoric.
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