Ukraine
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- Sonic1
- I need professional help
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Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
- Sonic1
- I need professional help
- Reactions: 89
- Posts: 1034
- Joined: Sat Nov 08, 2014 5:46 am
- Location: On the edge of the Milky Way...
Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
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- Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:33 pm
Ukraine crossed the Dnieper near the Antonovsky Bridge and established a small beach-head. The numbers are reportedly small, however Russia is retreating from the vicinity as they sent most of their combat capable troops to Zaporizhzhia following the dam collapse.
On 27 June, the PSU hit Russian supply depots in the Berdyansk, Prymorske, and Melitopol. During the night from 27 to 28 June, PSU hit Melitopol, and Ukraine run an UAV strike on targets in the Kursk region. The Russians ‘retaliated’ by releasing six Shahed-136s: all were claimed as shot down by the PSU. Another round of Russian artillery- and rocket strikes followed yesterday, on 28 June, and went on well into this morning. AFAIK, one person was killed in Kherson (the city was hit at least 12 times by Russian artillery this morning alone).
On 27 June, one of GRU informants in Kramatorsk informed the GRU about a large number of Western volunteers wearing military fatigues ‘gathering’ at a restaurant and a catering centre in downtown Kramatorsk. This intel apparently went up the entire Russian chain of command and as a result, the Russians hit the place with two S-300s. Precisely enough to kill at least 12 people (including three Ukrainian children), and wound more than 60…. The figures are still far from final.
In other ‘news’ related to air warfare:
- The VKS is known to have flown 47 registered air strikes on 27 June: most of these in the usual ‘spray & pray’ fashion, but a few including the release of MPK/UMPK glide bombs. Most of these were targeting ZSU in the Orikhiv and Novodanylivka areas.
- The VKS is known to have flown 44 tactical air strikes on 28 June: the PSU should’ve flown 11. A MANPAD-team of the 10th Mountain Assault claimed a VKS Su-25 using an Igla.
- Yesterday afternoon, Zelensky reportedly decorated Colonel Serhii Yaremenko, CO 96th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade for (quote), ‘….shooting down 13 Kinzhal missiles…’. Guess, this means it’s the 96th that’s operating US- and Germany-supplied PAC-2/3 SAM-systems.
BATTLE OF DONBAS
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina….Essentially, the Russian counteroffensive is stalled everywhere: stopped by much too heavy losses. Sure, in some cases, the ZSU is ‘down’ to killing single tanks with UAVs, but it works. The means do not matter: important is the result and nobody was hurt on own side. Sadly, the ZSU lacks electronic warfare systems for all sections of the frontline, and thus, and just for example, the Russians hit back, striking one of ZSU positions with their FPVs. That said, and above all: the Russians are shelling everything and everywhere they can: some 20 different positions of the ZSU and villages were listed as hit, every single day, the last 3-4 days.
Bakhmut…north…gauging by Ukrainian reports, the ZSU is (cautiously/slowly) pushing from three directions (north, west and south-west) on Soledar and Krasna Hora. Exactly like further south: even if causing massive Russian casualties, this is taking time…
Bakhmut…north/north-west….the 93rd Mech is also advancing back into northern outskirts of the ruined town, and reported the destruction of this T-72 there. For some 3-4 days now, the Russians are – massively – shelling Ivanivske and all of western fringes of the ruined town.
Bakhmut…south…. The 80th Airborne joined the task of clearing Russian trenches in small forests north/north-west of Klishchivka. It’s an arduous task, where it’s really about smoking the Russians out of every single hole. BTW, yesterday, the activity of this brigade caused quite a lots of claiming on both sides: supposedly, the 80th was ‘surrounded’ (so the Russians), or ‘has surrounded’ (so Ukrainians)…. Actually, the 3rd and the 80th overrun one of Russian positions north-west of Klishchivka, and collected quite a lots of POWs in the process. But, nobody was encircled, no matter on what side. As, meanwhile, ‘usual’, the VSRF reacted with another artillery barrage, and knocked out a BMP. And the 28th Mech continued a similar task, in the same, cautious and systematic fashion, but in the Kurdyumivka area.
Avdiivka… east of the town, the 110th Brigade (ZSU) continued grinding through the old LOC, and pushing into areas occupied by the Russians since 2014 (this unit is well-supported by artillery, BTW). It has crossed the H20 highway on both sides of Kruta Balka. South of Avdiivka, there were reports that, sometimes on 25 or 26 June, the ZSU liberated (completely ruined) Vodyane. Haven’t seen any evidence yet, though.
Mariinka….the 79th Airborne seems to be busy exchanging lots of UAV-strikes with the Russian opposition, but there are no changes on the ground.
SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA (& SOUTH-WESTERN DONETSK)
Vasilivka… the 128th is grinding into north-eastern side of Zherebyanky, but the problem now seems to be the Russians entrenched in a small forest north of that village. That is going to require another, systematic, ‘clearing’ by infantry.
Orikhiv….the situation is still what it was, which is: the 47th and the 65th Mech, supported by UAVs, are grinding additional paths through the minefields into northern Robotyne, to widen the area within which they can manoeuvre, and force the Russian ATGM-teams away. The Russians seem to be sending all available reinforcements in that direction: along the frontline of just 7,000-8,000 metres, they’ve concentrated the (remnants of) 291st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, 70th Motor Rifle Regiment, both the 22nd and 45th Spetnaz Brigades, plus BARS-11 and BARS-14. The VSRF is still striking back at every opportunity, too. Meanwhile, mostly by tank-fired anti-tank guided missiles, sometimes by Ka-52s (although, the number of their strikes went down by a margin, since the last weekend), and – whenever Ukrainian electronic warfare permits it - by FPVs.
Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka…Since securing Ryvnopyl, the ZSU seems to be squeezing Pyyutne from both east and west. On the eastern side of this sector, the ZSU (infantry) attack into Urozhaine is meanwhile in ‘full swing’. Ukrainian 47th Artillery has meanwhile exterminated the mass of the Russian artillery in the Staromlynivka, and is lately shelling targets all the way down to the Novopetrykivka area, including this Buk M1 SAM-system, possibly also this ‘UAV-control unit in southern Zaporizhzhya’.
…..and Oleshky, i.e. Ukrainian bridgehead in the area of the Antonovsky Bridge? Lots of claims, by both sides (including some panicky Russian demands for VKS to provide close air support), but no firm data.
On 27 June, one of GRU informants in Kramatorsk informed the GRU about a large number of Western volunteers wearing military fatigues ‘gathering’ at a restaurant and a catering centre in downtown Kramatorsk. This intel apparently went up the entire Russian chain of command and as a result, the Russians hit the place with two S-300s. Precisely enough to kill at least 12 people (including three Ukrainian children), and wound more than 60…. The figures are still far from final.
In other ‘news’ related to air warfare:
- The VKS is known to have flown 47 registered air strikes on 27 June: most of these in the usual ‘spray & pray’ fashion, but a few including the release of MPK/UMPK glide bombs. Most of these were targeting ZSU in the Orikhiv and Novodanylivka areas.
- The VKS is known to have flown 44 tactical air strikes on 28 June: the PSU should’ve flown 11. A MANPAD-team of the 10th Mountain Assault claimed a VKS Su-25 using an Igla.
- Yesterday afternoon, Zelensky reportedly decorated Colonel Serhii Yaremenko, CO 96th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade for (quote), ‘….shooting down 13 Kinzhal missiles…’. Guess, this means it’s the 96th that’s operating US- and Germany-supplied PAC-2/3 SAM-systems.
BATTLE OF DONBAS
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina….Essentially, the Russian counteroffensive is stalled everywhere: stopped by much too heavy losses. Sure, in some cases, the ZSU is ‘down’ to killing single tanks with UAVs, but it works. The means do not matter: important is the result and nobody was hurt on own side. Sadly, the ZSU lacks electronic warfare systems for all sections of the frontline, and thus, and just for example, the Russians hit back, striking one of ZSU positions with their FPVs. That said, and above all: the Russians are shelling everything and everywhere they can: some 20 different positions of the ZSU and villages were listed as hit, every single day, the last 3-4 days.
Bakhmut…north…gauging by Ukrainian reports, the ZSU is (cautiously/slowly) pushing from three directions (north, west and south-west) on Soledar and Krasna Hora. Exactly like further south: even if causing massive Russian casualties, this is taking time…
Bakhmut…north/north-west….the 93rd Mech is also advancing back into northern outskirts of the ruined town, and reported the destruction of this T-72 there. For some 3-4 days now, the Russians are – massively – shelling Ivanivske and all of western fringes of the ruined town.
Bakhmut…south…. The 80th Airborne joined the task of clearing Russian trenches in small forests north/north-west of Klishchivka. It’s an arduous task, where it’s really about smoking the Russians out of every single hole. BTW, yesterday, the activity of this brigade caused quite a lots of claiming on both sides: supposedly, the 80th was ‘surrounded’ (so the Russians), or ‘has surrounded’ (so Ukrainians)…. Actually, the 3rd and the 80th overrun one of Russian positions north-west of Klishchivka, and collected quite a lots of POWs in the process. But, nobody was encircled, no matter on what side. As, meanwhile, ‘usual’, the VSRF reacted with another artillery barrage, and knocked out a BMP. And the 28th Mech continued a similar task, in the same, cautious and systematic fashion, but in the Kurdyumivka area.
Avdiivka… east of the town, the 110th Brigade (ZSU) continued grinding through the old LOC, and pushing into areas occupied by the Russians since 2014 (this unit is well-supported by artillery, BTW). It has crossed the H20 highway on both sides of Kruta Balka. South of Avdiivka, there were reports that, sometimes on 25 or 26 June, the ZSU liberated (completely ruined) Vodyane. Haven’t seen any evidence yet, though.
Mariinka….the 79th Airborne seems to be busy exchanging lots of UAV-strikes with the Russian opposition, but there are no changes on the ground.
SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA (& SOUTH-WESTERN DONETSK)
Vasilivka… the 128th is grinding into north-eastern side of Zherebyanky, but the problem now seems to be the Russians entrenched in a small forest north of that village. That is going to require another, systematic, ‘clearing’ by infantry.
Orikhiv….the situation is still what it was, which is: the 47th and the 65th Mech, supported by UAVs, are grinding additional paths through the minefields into northern Robotyne, to widen the area within which they can manoeuvre, and force the Russian ATGM-teams away. The Russians seem to be sending all available reinforcements in that direction: along the frontline of just 7,000-8,000 metres, they’ve concentrated the (remnants of) 291st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, 70th Motor Rifle Regiment, both the 22nd and 45th Spetnaz Brigades, plus BARS-11 and BARS-14. The VSRF is still striking back at every opportunity, too. Meanwhile, mostly by tank-fired anti-tank guided missiles, sometimes by Ka-52s (although, the number of their strikes went down by a margin, since the last weekend), and – whenever Ukrainian electronic warfare permits it - by FPVs.
Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka…Since securing Ryvnopyl, the ZSU seems to be squeezing Pyyutne from both east and west. On the eastern side of this sector, the ZSU (infantry) attack into Urozhaine is meanwhile in ‘full swing’. Ukrainian 47th Artillery has meanwhile exterminated the mass of the Russian artillery in the Staromlynivka, and is lately shelling targets all the way down to the Novopetrykivka area, including this Buk M1 SAM-system, possibly also this ‘UAV-control unit in southern Zaporizhzhya’.
…..and Oleshky, i.e. Ukrainian bridgehead in the area of the Antonovsky Bridge? Lots of claims, by both sides (including some panicky Russian demands for VKS to provide close air support), but no firm data.
AIR/MISSILE WARFARE
Early on 29 June, multiple detonations were reported from the Tokmak area. The same area was targeted later during the day, again. RUMINT has it that one of Russian forward ammunition depots and the S-300 SAM-site protecting it were targeted. Over the last few days, the PSU and ZSU also hit Prymorsk and the Berdyansk airport: the latter is a major forward operating base for attack helicopters of the VKS.
In other news of this kind: during the night from 1 to 2 July, the Russians fired 3 Kalibr cruise missiles and 8 Shaheds at Kyiv: all were shot down, and all were shot down over the outskirts of the city.
BATTLE OF DONBAS
General… It seems the Western and Ukrainian military intelligence are assessing the Russians as having their largest concentration of forces in Ukraine deployed in the area between Svatove in the north and Severodonetsk-Lysychansk in the south. This appears to be ‘confirmed’ by OSINT-reports about the sheer number of VDV and VSRF units known as present in this area.
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina….while most of their ‘mil-bloggers’ are babbling about attacks of the famed 76th VDV Division into the forest north of the Siversky Donets River, actually, the primary direction of the Russian counteroffensive in this area is crystalising further north. Or at least it is so that if they’ve made any kind of advance, then in the area west of the Highway P66, between Svatove and Kremina. Their series of severe assaults seems to have pushed the 66th Ukrainian Brigade back towards the line of villages stretching from Kovalivka in the north, to Nevske in the south. The situation in this area remains tense, and even two weeks into this Russian operation, the volumes of the VSRF’s artillery barrages are still described as ‘insane’.
Bakhmut…north…the Russian 106th VDV Division deployed in the Soledar area is kept on its toes by Ukrainians grinding into its positions from north, west, and south-west. On the south-western side, the 57th Motor repelled another Russian counterattack and continued grinding into Berkhivka, the last three days.
Bakhmut…south… Ukrainian 22nd Mech and 80th Airborne have cleared the three small forests north-west of Klishchivka, and the 3rd Assault and the 28th Mech crossed the Siversky Donets Canal and approached the village from the west and south-west.
The Russians flew quite a lots of air strikes in this area, the last 3-4 days: mostly by Su-25s in ‘spray and pray’ fashion, but some by Ka-52s, too.
Avdiivka…On 26-27 June, Ukrainians have liberated the (completely ruined, as usually), village of Vesele, north of Avdiivka, but otherwise the focus of fighting in this area remained Kruta Balka in he East, and Vodyane in the South.
SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA (& SOUTH-WESTERN DONETSK)
General…the battlefield here is now reminiscent of a ‘game of chess’. See: one commander does ‘this’, to which the enemy reacts with ‘that’, to which the first commander reacts with ‘this’….and so they’re all the time trying to ‘outmanoeuvre’ each other.
Vasylivka… the 128th Mountain has repelled a series of vicious Russian counterattacks, the last few days, but still found the time to mop the area north of Zherebyanky and then to continue its push into that village. The last time I’ve got hear from this ‘corner’ of the frontline, it was in the process of grinding through what’s left of the 429th Motor Rifle Battalion, VSRF, in Zherbyanky: this was then reinforced by the BARS-32, but all the Russian reinforcements moving towards the Vasylivka area (the town is held by the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade), are heavily hit by Ukrainian UAVs, artillery, and HIMARS/MLRS’.
Note: there are reports about some sort of Ukrainian advance east of Zherbyanky, too: roughly in direction of the road connecting villages of Nestrianka and Myrne. Guess, some of this is based on such actions like destruction of a Russian Polye-21 EW-system there, yesterday, or hits on the VSRF’s artillery, few days earlier. The area is open and massively mined, though, and I’ve heard, seen or found nothing confirming any kind of Ukrainian advances in this direction.
Orikhiv…On 28-29 June, a Russian counterattack aiming to push Ukrainians back into the minefields north of Robotyne failed. This had severe consequences – for the VSRF. Early on 30 June, the ZSU infantry (who else…) infiltrated Novopokrovka, then assaulted from ‘knife range’ causing the Russian garrison to flee in panic. The 58th CAA reacted by re-deploying Spetsnaz there (probably the 45th Brigade), which saved the situation in so far that they’re still holding the southern side of the village. However, ZSU then (on 1 July) infiltrated the seam between the BARS-3 (defending Robotyne) and the 70th Motor Rifle Regiment (defending the area between Robotyne and Verbove). Once again, the Russian positions collapsed, enabling Ukrainian reinforcements (38th Brigade?) to drive a wedge in direction of Novoprokopivka (defended by the 1430th Motor Rifle Regiment). It’s unclear how far this one went, but it’s clear that the Ukrainian action lasted for at least 48 hours, without interruption, exhausting the Russians (but own troops too) as result. What is sure is that as soon as the Russians re-deployed a part of the 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade and a few tanks in block this Ukrainian move, the main position of the 22nd was hit by another Ukrainian infiltration, this time into the Russian eastern flank, in direction of Verbove (defended by the 417th Recce Battalion)…
Total result is nicely depicted on the following map by Don Hill:
Amid the ‘total EMCON’ imposed on the ZSU units in all of southern Zaporizhzhya of the last few days (i.e. everybody is – strictly – prohibited from ‘reporting’ anything at all), that’s something like the ‘last stand’ of what I ‘know’: meanwhile, these ‘news’ are more than 48 hours old, and thus, and in conclusion, I can only assess that with this the ZSU has opened its attack on the 2nd Line of the Russian defences (indeed: on a joint of the 2nd and the 3rd Line), while the Russians are certain to be running yet more of their counterattacks…
Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka…Ukrainians have spent the last few days grinding themselves into that forest west of Staromaiorske, and from there with infiltrating Russian positions west (on Pryyutne) and east on (Staromaiorske). The 47th Artillery continued exterminating whatever can be identified as ‘Russian and having a tube on it’…
That said, it seems that – after a break of a few days – VKS’ Ka-52s are back in force, and then striking quite a number of Ukrainian vehicles, even if I’m not sure whether their ‘targets’ are ‘still operational’, or ‘just abandoned wreckage’.
Kherson (city)….Over the last week, the ZSU has established a firm bridgehead stretching all along the southern bank of the Dnipro, from Dachas north of Oleshky to the northern frindges of Bilohrudove and Hola Prystan in the south. The Russians reacted by all means at their disposal, from TOS-1s and air strikes, to severe artillery barrages and claimed the bridgehead along the Antonovsky Bridge as ‘destroyed’, but their mil-blogger industry is still in panic and reporting severe losses of VSRF’s artillery. Do not really understand all the Russian ‘panic’, then Ukrainians are still ‘far away’ from widening their bridgehead to the full length of the Konka River, and thus reaching the northern outskirts of Oleshky, just for example, not to talk about actually crossing the Konka…
Tom Cooper
Early on 29 June, multiple detonations were reported from the Tokmak area. The same area was targeted later during the day, again. RUMINT has it that one of Russian forward ammunition depots and the S-300 SAM-site protecting it were targeted. Over the last few days, the PSU and ZSU also hit Prymorsk and the Berdyansk airport: the latter is a major forward operating base for attack helicopters of the VKS.
In other news of this kind: during the night from 1 to 2 July, the Russians fired 3 Kalibr cruise missiles and 8 Shaheds at Kyiv: all were shot down, and all were shot down over the outskirts of the city.
BATTLE OF DONBAS
General… It seems the Western and Ukrainian military intelligence are assessing the Russians as having their largest concentration of forces in Ukraine deployed in the area between Svatove in the north and Severodonetsk-Lysychansk in the south. This appears to be ‘confirmed’ by OSINT-reports about the sheer number of VDV and VSRF units known as present in this area.
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina….while most of their ‘mil-bloggers’ are babbling about attacks of the famed 76th VDV Division into the forest north of the Siversky Donets River, actually, the primary direction of the Russian counteroffensive in this area is crystalising further north. Or at least it is so that if they’ve made any kind of advance, then in the area west of the Highway P66, between Svatove and Kremina. Their series of severe assaults seems to have pushed the 66th Ukrainian Brigade back towards the line of villages stretching from Kovalivka in the north, to Nevske in the south. The situation in this area remains tense, and even two weeks into this Russian operation, the volumes of the VSRF’s artillery barrages are still described as ‘insane’.
Bakhmut…north…the Russian 106th VDV Division deployed in the Soledar area is kept on its toes by Ukrainians grinding into its positions from north, west, and south-west. On the south-western side, the 57th Motor repelled another Russian counterattack and continued grinding into Berkhivka, the last three days.
Bakhmut…south… Ukrainian 22nd Mech and 80th Airborne have cleared the three small forests north-west of Klishchivka, and the 3rd Assault and the 28th Mech crossed the Siversky Donets Canal and approached the village from the west and south-west.
The Russians flew quite a lots of air strikes in this area, the last 3-4 days: mostly by Su-25s in ‘spray and pray’ fashion, but some by Ka-52s, too.
Avdiivka…On 26-27 June, Ukrainians have liberated the (completely ruined, as usually), village of Vesele, north of Avdiivka, but otherwise the focus of fighting in this area remained Kruta Balka in he East, and Vodyane in the South.
SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA (& SOUTH-WESTERN DONETSK)
General…the battlefield here is now reminiscent of a ‘game of chess’. See: one commander does ‘this’, to which the enemy reacts with ‘that’, to which the first commander reacts with ‘this’….and so they’re all the time trying to ‘outmanoeuvre’ each other.
Vasylivka… the 128th Mountain has repelled a series of vicious Russian counterattacks, the last few days, but still found the time to mop the area north of Zherebyanky and then to continue its push into that village. The last time I’ve got hear from this ‘corner’ of the frontline, it was in the process of grinding through what’s left of the 429th Motor Rifle Battalion, VSRF, in Zherbyanky: this was then reinforced by the BARS-32, but all the Russian reinforcements moving towards the Vasylivka area (the town is held by the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade), are heavily hit by Ukrainian UAVs, artillery, and HIMARS/MLRS’.
Note: there are reports about some sort of Ukrainian advance east of Zherbyanky, too: roughly in direction of the road connecting villages of Nestrianka and Myrne. Guess, some of this is based on such actions like destruction of a Russian Polye-21 EW-system there, yesterday, or hits on the VSRF’s artillery, few days earlier. The area is open and massively mined, though, and I’ve heard, seen or found nothing confirming any kind of Ukrainian advances in this direction.
Orikhiv…On 28-29 June, a Russian counterattack aiming to push Ukrainians back into the minefields north of Robotyne failed. This had severe consequences – for the VSRF. Early on 30 June, the ZSU infantry (who else…) infiltrated Novopokrovka, then assaulted from ‘knife range’ causing the Russian garrison to flee in panic. The 58th CAA reacted by re-deploying Spetsnaz there (probably the 45th Brigade), which saved the situation in so far that they’re still holding the southern side of the village. However, ZSU then (on 1 July) infiltrated the seam between the BARS-3 (defending Robotyne) and the 70th Motor Rifle Regiment (defending the area between Robotyne and Verbove). Once again, the Russian positions collapsed, enabling Ukrainian reinforcements (38th Brigade?) to drive a wedge in direction of Novoprokopivka (defended by the 1430th Motor Rifle Regiment). It’s unclear how far this one went, but it’s clear that the Ukrainian action lasted for at least 48 hours, without interruption, exhausting the Russians (but own troops too) as result. What is sure is that as soon as the Russians re-deployed a part of the 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade and a few tanks in block this Ukrainian move, the main position of the 22nd was hit by another Ukrainian infiltration, this time into the Russian eastern flank, in direction of Verbove (defended by the 417th Recce Battalion)…
Total result is nicely depicted on the following map by Don Hill:
Amid the ‘total EMCON’ imposed on the ZSU units in all of southern Zaporizhzhya of the last few days (i.e. everybody is – strictly – prohibited from ‘reporting’ anything at all), that’s something like the ‘last stand’ of what I ‘know’: meanwhile, these ‘news’ are more than 48 hours old, and thus, and in conclusion, I can only assess that with this the ZSU has opened its attack on the 2nd Line of the Russian defences (indeed: on a joint of the 2nd and the 3rd Line), while the Russians are certain to be running yet more of their counterattacks…
Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka…Ukrainians have spent the last few days grinding themselves into that forest west of Staromaiorske, and from there with infiltrating Russian positions west (on Pryyutne) and east on (Staromaiorske). The 47th Artillery continued exterminating whatever can be identified as ‘Russian and having a tube on it’…
That said, it seems that – after a break of a few days – VKS’ Ka-52s are back in force, and then striking quite a number of Ukrainian vehicles, even if I’m not sure whether their ‘targets’ are ‘still operational’, or ‘just abandoned wreckage’.
Kherson (city)….Over the last week, the ZSU has established a firm bridgehead stretching all along the southern bank of the Dnipro, from Dachas north of Oleshky to the northern frindges of Bilohrudove and Hola Prystan in the south. The Russians reacted by all means at their disposal, from TOS-1s and air strikes, to severe artillery barrages and claimed the bridgehead along the Antonovsky Bridge as ‘destroyed’, but their mil-blogger industry is still in panic and reporting severe losses of VSRF’s artillery. Do not really understand all the Russian ‘panic’, then Ukrainians are still ‘far away’ from widening their bridgehead to the full length of the Konka River, and thus reaching the northern outskirts of Oleshky, just for example, not to talk about actually crossing the Konka…
Tom Cooper
- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
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- Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:33 pm
He has a good point regarding the Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper. The bridge crossing the Konka river is a choke point the Russians can easily defend and the areas around it swampy, making any attempts to use bridging equipment elsewhere problematic .
- Sonic1
- I need professional help
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- Joined: Sat Nov 08, 2014 5:46 am
- Location: On the edge of the Milky Way...
"Armies win battles, logistics win wars." Ukraine keeps chipping away at Russia's supply chain which includes bridges, railways, oil depots, etc. Slow counter offensive as Ukraine is unwilling to risk it's human assets given Russia has them at a 3 to 1 advantage. Clip resembles a nightime fireworks show, not gory just very explosive
Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
Useful summary by al jazeera, great graphics, on day 500
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform ... -what-cost
'According to Ukraine’s defence ministry, Russian personnel losses stand at 231,700 troops “liquidated” as of July 5.
According to the British Ministry of Defence, in the first year of the war, there were up to 200,000 casualties among Russian army troops and private military contractor forces, such as those deployed by the Wagner Group. This likely included between 40,000 to 60,000 killed.
More recently, according to an assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency leaked in April this year, Russia has suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 total casualties, including 35,500 to 43,000 killed in action and 154,000 to 180,000 wounded.
The US says Ukraine has suffered up to 131,000 total casualties, including up to 17,500 killed in action and up to 113,500 wounded in action.'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform ... -what-cost
'According to Ukraine’s defence ministry, Russian personnel losses stand at 231,700 troops “liquidated” as of July 5.
According to the British Ministry of Defence, in the first year of the war, there were up to 200,000 casualties among Russian army troops and private military contractor forces, such as those deployed by the Wagner Group. This likely included between 40,000 to 60,000 killed.
More recently, according to an assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency leaked in April this year, Russia has suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 total casualties, including 35,500 to 43,000 killed in action and 154,000 to 180,000 wounded.
The US says Ukraine has suffered up to 131,000 total casualties, including up to 17,500 killed in action and up to 113,500 wounded in action.'
'The general population doesn't know what's happening, and it doesn't even know that it doesn't know.'
Noam Chomsky
Noam Chomsky
Day 500
AIR/MISSILE WAR
On 4 July, the Russians targeted the centre of Pervomaisky, in the Kharkiv Oblast, with an Iskander missile. At least 31 civilians were wounded, including 10 children and 2 infants. What exactly was the VSRF targeting there?
Early on 5 July, the PSU hit a POL- and ammo-depots in Makivka (the Russians reacted with claims that the ZSU targeted the local hospital, nearby, which all proved lies: a hospital did suffer damage from overpressure and debris, though), and the administration building in the occupied Volnovakha – apparently, both by M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS. As far as I know, this was the first Ukrainian strike with HIMARS or MLRS in the Volnovakha area. I consider that a good sign: that ‘corner’ of the frontline was something like ‘deep in the Russian backyard’ already since late February the last year.
On 6 July, the Russians attacked Ukraine with a total of 10 Kalibr cruise missiles. Seven were claimed as shot down by the PSU, but a least one demolished a number of homes in Lviv, while – apparently – missing its actual target: the local SBU HQ. On the same day, the Russians have released a video shown a Storm Shadow they’ve found. The weapon apparently malfunctioned and came down ‘almost intact’. Of course, it’s promptly declared for a great catch, ‘even if’ it ‘proved mediocre against Russian defences’.
On the same day, at least one explosion occurred in Donetsk city, as the ZSU and PSU continued targeting additional Russian POL- and ammunition depots, including one in Yasynuvata, and another in Makivka.
Early on 7 July, the Russians released 18 Shahed-136s: 12 were claimed as shot down, but the other six came through and one did hit something in the Zaporizhzhya (city). Around the same time, Ukrainians blew up another Russian ammunition depot, this time in Sukhodolsk, in the Luhansk Oblast - and, it seems they’re now using old V-860/880 missiles of the S-200 (SA-5 Gammon) SAM-system in surface-to-surface mode, too. Indeed, the Russians claimed that one of these was intercepted by their air defences in the Kerch area.
The Russians did hit something in Zaporizhzhya (city), early on 7 July, but details remain unknown - probably because there were no foreigners around to start spreading videos in the social media…
During the night from 7 to 8 July, the Russians released a stream of Shahed-136s on Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad. Five were claimed as shot down by Ukrainians, but several came through and scored hits on unknown objects.
Last night (from 8-9 July), the VSRF shelled the residential area of Kramatorsk, while in the morning the Russian air defences were reportedly ‘active’ both in the Kerch- and Rostov-na-Donu areas, and in the Bryansk area (which, apparently, was hit by one of Ukrainian V-860/V-880s).
ADD-ONs regarding DPICM SHELLS
Obviously, as soon as DPICMs appear on the battlefield, the Russians will be forced to learn to scatter their vehicles further away from each other.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
In grand total, the ‘game of chess’ is going on, with Ukrainian commanders seeking for ways to find and then exploit weaknesses in Russian lines, and the Russians reacting by closing gaps and replacing losses through pumping ever more of their reserve units to the battlefield (that said, in most of cases they seem to be taking away a battalion here and company there from units further behind the frontline, instead of sending these forward as coherent units). Where on attack (like in the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina sector), the Russians continue using all the firepower of their artillery and, lately, are deploying lots of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
Where on defence, the Russians are doing everything in their powers to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs: they’re using whatever reserves they’ve got, anything, just to prevent a manoeuvre battle. I think the reason is obvious – and something I’ve explained already: while different ‘Experten’ in the ‘West’ (better said: Central Europe) are still daydreaming about ‘high professionalism’ of the Russian Spetsnaz, the mass of Russian troops is barely good enough to defend their positions by day, and if well-supported by artillery, only. Otherwise, there’s simply no doubt that they’re poorly motivated, that their commanders are useless and having poor communications and thus poor coordination of units. In many places, they also lack well-fortified positions. But, and foremost, they know: the moment Ukrainians break through and convert the battle into one of manoeuvres, they aren’t going to be able to keep up. Neither in terms of command nor in terms of manoeuvre and firepower.
That’s why all the info on Russian ‘defence lines’ so carefully tracked down and drawn on maps of dozens of online-mappers of this war, is, actually, useless. From the Russian point of view, there’s just one defence line that matters, and that’s the forward line of contact. The very frontline. And that’s why all the fighting over the last month of this Ukrainian counteroffensive is focusing on the frontline, too.
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina…The Russians – which is (from north towards south):
• 7th Motor Rifle Regiment,
• 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade,
• 21st Motor Rifle Brigade,
• 24th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade,
• 55th Mountain Rifle Brigade, and
• 74th Guards Motor Rifle
– have spent most of the last week with continuous attempts to push west – without much success.
In the Dibrova area the VDV also continued trying to push west and south. Sure, the 7th Motor Rifle did gain some 500m against the northern flank of the 103rd TD, north-west of Kuzemivka – prompting Russians into releasing daydreams about encirclement of the Hill 190 and whatever else… until the 93rd Mech turned up, on 6 July: then the Russian party was over and they were sent back home. Something similar happened to several Russian attacks south of Kremina, too. In total, it was always the same exercise again: the Russians shelling, shelling, shelling, assaulting, getting wrecked and falling back to starting positions, then back to shelling, shelling, shelling… Actually, in some areas – Dibrova, for example – it was Ukrainians that were counterattacking, the last few days. Without much success, though.
One interesting detail from the area west of Kremina: on 6 July, the Russians claimed to have knocked out a Swedish-made CV-90 IFV in Neveske, using a Krasnopol guided shell calibre 152mm. Gauging by the video, me thinks they actually hit a different vehicle near the CV-90 parked some 20m away.
Bakhmut…. it feels like I’m analysing the fighting for this place ‘forever’ already: at least a year now…
Anyway…
Bakhmut….north….following days of reports about minor Ukrainian attacks, since yesterday, there are reports about much larger attacks from north on the area between Soledar and Yakovlivka. Also claims about an Ukrainian advance of 1,000-2,000 metres. The last I’ve heard from this area, back on 5-6 July, the 106th VDV Division suffered heavy losses (apparently, one of its battalion was almost annihilated by a salvo of M142s or M270s), and thus the Russians brought two VDV regiments as reinforcements: must admit, I expected them to go to the Berkhivka area, though…
Bakhmut…well, northern outskirts…the last few days, the 3rd Assault, the 24th Assault Battalion Aidar (5th Assault), and the 57th Motor Rifle continued grinding into Berkhivka. There are reports they’re inside the village (again), and also have the fire-control over the M3 highway behind it. Haven’t seen any confirmation for this, yet, and all the war-mappers are drawing Ukrainians as still about 1000m away from the village, though….
Anyway, from what I get to hear from this area, the VSRF has a large number of T-72s and BMP-1 IFVs from the 68th Tank Regiment around, and enough self-propelled artillery. BMP-3s are meanwhile seen very rarely. They’ve got some good ATGM-teams, and their helicopters are a constant trouble – especially whenever Ukrainians are on advance. Worst of all, they’ve mined all of hedgerows in front, around, and often even in between their positions. Indeed – and pay attention at the new Russian perfidy – even many of their trenches are booby-trapped, nowadays…
Just like in parts of Tripoli - capital of Libya - after Wagner’s failed coup of 2020, everything, every hedgerow, every farm, every hamlet, every village Liberated by Ukrainians first has to be comprehensively de-mined. Because there are thousands of mines everywhere, this is taking lots of time, and that remains the principal reason for the ZSU ‘coming forward very slowly’.
Klishchivka-Kurdiumivka….this was a place of particularly bitter combat, the last seven days. On 2-3 July, Ukrainians (5th Assault, 22nd Mech and/or 80th Airborne?) secured the Hill 200 (that’s at least the ‘military designation’ of ‘that hill above Klishchivka’). By Tuesday, 4 July, positions of the Russian 72nd Motor Rifle north of the village collapsed and the Russians began fleeing. On 5 July, the Russians brought in the BARS-13 and the 68th Tank Regiment to prevent a collapse, while sending what’s left of the 57th Motor Rifle to counterattack south of the village. That didn’t really work because the 3rd Assault attacked into southern Klishchivka. Around the same time, the 28th Mech then crossed the Siversky Donets-Donbass Canal, caused heavy losses to the 4th and 14th Motor Rifle Brigades, and entered Kurdiumivka and Ozananivka, few kilometres further south.
At least it’s so that through 6 July, Ukrainians consolidated all of their newly-won positions, while the Russians spent that and the following day by bringing yet additional reinforcements to the combat zone (the 80th Motor Rifle Regiment and the 1307th Motor Rifle Battalion, just for example).
Avdiivka & Mariinka….the, reportedly, heaviest Russian assaults of the last week took place on 2-3-4 July in the area between Avdiivka and Mariinka, especially from Pisky on Pervomaiske, and in western Marinka. That said, except for ‘particularly heavy attacks’, Ukrainian videos of 10-hours-long trench fights, and the Russian complaints about ‘additional meat attacks’, neither side released lots of details. As far as can be said by now, the VSRF attacked with a total of some two motor rifle regiments and one mechanised brigade, but every single of few dozens of assaults failed – and this although receiving significant artillery support, and some 20-30 air strikes by Su-25s a day. Cannot but agree with Girkin: this is looking like if the Russian I Army Corps is keen to destroy whatever is left of ‘Separatist’ units (and those of unlucky Russian mobiks, used to ‘refill’ the same).
SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA (& SOUTH-WESTERN DONETSK)
In total, the ZSU has completely switched to its ‘commando-raid’ assault tactics. Which is: it’s infiltrating and then assaulting Russian strongholds by small groups of infantry. If these manage to approach unobserved, they’re usually overpowering- or prompting Russian garrison into panicky withdrawals. Some 15-20 minutes later, there’s then usually vicious reaction from the Russian artillery (see: shelling own positions that were lost). This in turn is enabling Ukrainian artillery (as far as this has enough shells), HIMARS/MLRS’, and/or the PSU (MiG-29s with JDAM-ERs) to hit the Russian artillery pieces. If they’re successful in this, Ukrainians then rush to reinforce their penetration, while the Russians are rushing their reserves forward and counterattacking.
The outcome usually depends on quality of command and training. Some of ZSU units are simply better at this, others are still learning their lessons and thus experiencing bigger problems and – sometimes – higher losses, too. Unsurprisingly, there are people within ranks of ZSU officers, wondering about the sense and purpose of assigning all the new weapons systems of Western origins to newly-established units, instead to ‘old’ and combat-proven ones…
Orikhiv… I think it can be said the week began with the ZSU widening its frontline by attacking Nestrianka (south-west of Orikhiv, defended by the 503rd Motor Rifle Regiment), and reinforcing its push on Verbove, so to force the Russians to thin out their units where it matters the most. Instead the Russians reacted by bringing the 1430th Motor Rifle Regiment from Novoprokopivka to counterattack and recover positions of the mauled 70th Motor Rifle Regiment, north-west of Robotyne. Didn’t really work, for either side. For the Russians because Ukrainian air strikes with JDAM-ERs have decimated the supporting artillery. For Ukrainians, because fresh Russian troops were in the way. That said, Ukrainians didn’t sit down to cry, but attacked the hill north-east of Kopani (where they’ve reached the 2nd Russian Defence Line), defended by the BARS-11 and the Tsar Wolves PMC, ‘instead’. From there, Ukrainians turned east, and drove into the western flank of the Russian defences of Robotyne, causing heavy losses to the 291st Motor Rifle Regiment. Latest news is that the ZSU then ‘penetrated’ (or, more likely: raided) positions of the 70th Motor Rifle Regiment, causing it yet additional heavy losses before being stopped by a severe thunderstorm, yesterday.
Perhaps more importantly: the VSRF losses in this area have reached a point where the Russians are meanwhile bringing their next – and last – operational reserve in southern Zaporizhzhya, the 35th CAA, to the area between Novoprokopivka and Basan. Which is just as good, because this is now blasted by Ukrainian artillery.
BTW No.1: just how effective the ‘commando raids’ by the ZSU infantry can get, is obvious from what these survivors of the company that used to defend Novodarivka, until 1-2 July, have to say. Over 50% casualties…
BTW No. 2: of interest is that the VKS is all the time bombing Mala Tokmachka with MPKs and UMPKs, plus BM-27s and BM-30s, and by Lancets, and that the village is intensively monitored by the Russian UAVs. Apparently, it was in this area that the ZSU suffered its first confirmed loss of a British-made AS-90 self-propelled howitzer. At the same time, Ukrainians are reporting a strong concentration of Russian forces in Kermenchik: supposedly, these have grouped a tank battalion and something like 3-5 motor rifle battalions there. Whether for some sort of counterattack, or in expectation of a bigger Ukrainian assault in that direction – no idea. We’re going to see. I’m just sure of one thing: ‘big trenches and anti-tank obstacles’ are NOT marking anything like ‘1st Russian Defence Line’. The 1st Defence Line is on the frontline. Everything further behind was constructed as, a) Maskirovka, and b) ‘fall-back-line’. I.e. these long lines of trenches are the ‘2nd Line’; one to which the VSRF is planning to withdraw when its 1st Line collapses. Which in turn confirms that one can’t measure the ZSU’s advance by how much of any kind of ‘trench line’ has it reached, i.e. how many kilometres did it advance: the only way to measure it success right now is by how much damage is it causing to the Russians. How many of these are getting killed, how many vehicles and guns destroyed…
Funny to read ‘reports’ by US ‘journalists’ explaining how ‘useless’ are German-made Panzerhaubitze 2000s, and explaining this with them breaking down too often. Actually, it turned out their Ukrainian crews are - regularly - shooting up to 4,000-5,000 shells from their tubes made to ‘survive’ some 1,000 shots…. Ah yes and: pay attention at the ‘Igel Zusatzpanzerung’ (Igel add-on armour) on the turret roof of this one. Essentially, that’s consisting of sticks of hard rubber, which are detonating warheads of such stuff like Lancets prematurely.
Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka…the ZSU’s grinding through the forest between Pryyutne and Staromaiorske is starting to pay off: since some 3-4 days, Ukrainians are squeezing Pryyutne from both west (36th Naval Infantry) and east (31st Mech), and attacking what’s left of the 60th Motor Rifle Brigade VSRF in the Staromaiorske-Urozhaine conglomeration both from west (35th Naval Infantry) and east (35th Naval Infantry and 4th Tank). They seem to be at least on the verge of Pryyutne, if not already inside (think to have seen a video shown a sizeable depot of mortar ammo, captured there….can’t find the link any more). Indeed, I was expecting them to liberate this place by now; instead, the Russians claimed to have counterattacked the place, on 8 July, and thus the fighting is still going on.
In the case of Staromaiorske: it appears that the ZSU is not trying to directly assault the place. Thanks to possession of high grounds west of the latter village, the place became perfect to continue smashing the defending Russians – and all the reinforcements they’re still sending there in big numbers. Fine with the ZSU, I would say.
Further east, Ukrainians (37th Naval Infantry) have also resumed their attacks on Novodonetske and Kermenchyk.
Notably, through all this time, the Russian command is not moving the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade from Volodyne, where this is sitting, doing nothing, and waiting for over a month, already. This is unusual for the recent style of the Russian command: after all, three weeks ago they’ve rushed most of the 127th Motor Rifle Division northwards, in attempt to save the situation in this area. But, now it seems somebody there is not sure his/their lines further north are going to hold out for much longer?
Of course, there was fighting in plenty of other areas - especially, apparently, in the Oleshky area, where the Russians failed to destroy the Ukrainian bridgehead, but continue pounding it by all the means on their hand. Tom Cooper
AIR/MISSILE WAR
On 4 July, the Russians targeted the centre of Pervomaisky, in the Kharkiv Oblast, with an Iskander missile. At least 31 civilians were wounded, including 10 children and 2 infants. What exactly was the VSRF targeting there?
Early on 5 July, the PSU hit a POL- and ammo-depots in Makivka (the Russians reacted with claims that the ZSU targeted the local hospital, nearby, which all proved lies: a hospital did suffer damage from overpressure and debris, though), and the administration building in the occupied Volnovakha – apparently, both by M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS. As far as I know, this was the first Ukrainian strike with HIMARS or MLRS in the Volnovakha area. I consider that a good sign: that ‘corner’ of the frontline was something like ‘deep in the Russian backyard’ already since late February the last year.
On 6 July, the Russians attacked Ukraine with a total of 10 Kalibr cruise missiles. Seven were claimed as shot down by the PSU, but a least one demolished a number of homes in Lviv, while – apparently – missing its actual target: the local SBU HQ. On the same day, the Russians have released a video shown a Storm Shadow they’ve found. The weapon apparently malfunctioned and came down ‘almost intact’. Of course, it’s promptly declared for a great catch, ‘even if’ it ‘proved mediocre against Russian defences’.
On the same day, at least one explosion occurred in Donetsk city, as the ZSU and PSU continued targeting additional Russian POL- and ammunition depots, including one in Yasynuvata, and another in Makivka.
Early on 7 July, the Russians released 18 Shahed-136s: 12 were claimed as shot down, but the other six came through and one did hit something in the Zaporizhzhya (city). Around the same time, Ukrainians blew up another Russian ammunition depot, this time in Sukhodolsk, in the Luhansk Oblast - and, it seems they’re now using old V-860/880 missiles of the S-200 (SA-5 Gammon) SAM-system in surface-to-surface mode, too. Indeed, the Russians claimed that one of these was intercepted by their air defences in the Kerch area.
The Russians did hit something in Zaporizhzhya (city), early on 7 July, but details remain unknown - probably because there were no foreigners around to start spreading videos in the social media…
During the night from 7 to 8 July, the Russians released a stream of Shahed-136s on Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad. Five were claimed as shot down by Ukrainians, but several came through and scored hits on unknown objects.
Last night (from 8-9 July), the VSRF shelled the residential area of Kramatorsk, while in the morning the Russian air defences were reportedly ‘active’ both in the Kerch- and Rostov-na-Donu areas, and in the Bryansk area (which, apparently, was hit by one of Ukrainian V-860/V-880s).
ADD-ONs regarding DPICM SHELLS
Obviously, as soon as DPICMs appear on the battlefield, the Russians will be forced to learn to scatter their vehicles further away from each other.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
In grand total, the ‘game of chess’ is going on, with Ukrainian commanders seeking for ways to find and then exploit weaknesses in Russian lines, and the Russians reacting by closing gaps and replacing losses through pumping ever more of their reserve units to the battlefield (that said, in most of cases they seem to be taking away a battalion here and company there from units further behind the frontline, instead of sending these forward as coherent units). Where on attack (like in the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina sector), the Russians continue using all the firepower of their artillery and, lately, are deploying lots of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
Where on defence, the Russians are doing everything in their powers to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs: they’re using whatever reserves they’ve got, anything, just to prevent a manoeuvre battle. I think the reason is obvious – and something I’ve explained already: while different ‘Experten’ in the ‘West’ (better said: Central Europe) are still daydreaming about ‘high professionalism’ of the Russian Spetsnaz, the mass of Russian troops is barely good enough to defend their positions by day, and if well-supported by artillery, only. Otherwise, there’s simply no doubt that they’re poorly motivated, that their commanders are useless and having poor communications and thus poor coordination of units. In many places, they also lack well-fortified positions. But, and foremost, they know: the moment Ukrainians break through and convert the battle into one of manoeuvres, they aren’t going to be able to keep up. Neither in terms of command nor in terms of manoeuvre and firepower.
That’s why all the info on Russian ‘defence lines’ so carefully tracked down and drawn on maps of dozens of online-mappers of this war, is, actually, useless. From the Russian point of view, there’s just one defence line that matters, and that’s the forward line of contact. The very frontline. And that’s why all the fighting over the last month of this Ukrainian counteroffensive is focusing on the frontline, too.
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina…The Russians – which is (from north towards south):
• 7th Motor Rifle Regiment,
• 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade,
• 21st Motor Rifle Brigade,
• 24th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade,
• 55th Mountain Rifle Brigade, and
• 74th Guards Motor Rifle
– have spent most of the last week with continuous attempts to push west – without much success.
In the Dibrova area the VDV also continued trying to push west and south. Sure, the 7th Motor Rifle did gain some 500m against the northern flank of the 103rd TD, north-west of Kuzemivka – prompting Russians into releasing daydreams about encirclement of the Hill 190 and whatever else… until the 93rd Mech turned up, on 6 July: then the Russian party was over and they were sent back home. Something similar happened to several Russian attacks south of Kremina, too. In total, it was always the same exercise again: the Russians shelling, shelling, shelling, assaulting, getting wrecked and falling back to starting positions, then back to shelling, shelling, shelling… Actually, in some areas – Dibrova, for example – it was Ukrainians that were counterattacking, the last few days. Without much success, though.
One interesting detail from the area west of Kremina: on 6 July, the Russians claimed to have knocked out a Swedish-made CV-90 IFV in Neveske, using a Krasnopol guided shell calibre 152mm. Gauging by the video, me thinks they actually hit a different vehicle near the CV-90 parked some 20m away.
Bakhmut…. it feels like I’m analysing the fighting for this place ‘forever’ already: at least a year now…
Anyway…
Bakhmut….north….following days of reports about minor Ukrainian attacks, since yesterday, there are reports about much larger attacks from north on the area between Soledar and Yakovlivka. Also claims about an Ukrainian advance of 1,000-2,000 metres. The last I’ve heard from this area, back on 5-6 July, the 106th VDV Division suffered heavy losses (apparently, one of its battalion was almost annihilated by a salvo of M142s or M270s), and thus the Russians brought two VDV regiments as reinforcements: must admit, I expected them to go to the Berkhivka area, though…
Bakhmut…well, northern outskirts…the last few days, the 3rd Assault, the 24th Assault Battalion Aidar (5th Assault), and the 57th Motor Rifle continued grinding into Berkhivka. There are reports they’re inside the village (again), and also have the fire-control over the M3 highway behind it. Haven’t seen any confirmation for this, yet, and all the war-mappers are drawing Ukrainians as still about 1000m away from the village, though….
Anyway, from what I get to hear from this area, the VSRF has a large number of T-72s and BMP-1 IFVs from the 68th Tank Regiment around, and enough self-propelled artillery. BMP-3s are meanwhile seen very rarely. They’ve got some good ATGM-teams, and their helicopters are a constant trouble – especially whenever Ukrainians are on advance. Worst of all, they’ve mined all of hedgerows in front, around, and often even in between their positions. Indeed – and pay attention at the new Russian perfidy – even many of their trenches are booby-trapped, nowadays…
Just like in parts of Tripoli - capital of Libya - after Wagner’s failed coup of 2020, everything, every hedgerow, every farm, every hamlet, every village Liberated by Ukrainians first has to be comprehensively de-mined. Because there are thousands of mines everywhere, this is taking lots of time, and that remains the principal reason for the ZSU ‘coming forward very slowly’.
Klishchivka-Kurdiumivka….this was a place of particularly bitter combat, the last seven days. On 2-3 July, Ukrainians (5th Assault, 22nd Mech and/or 80th Airborne?) secured the Hill 200 (that’s at least the ‘military designation’ of ‘that hill above Klishchivka’). By Tuesday, 4 July, positions of the Russian 72nd Motor Rifle north of the village collapsed and the Russians began fleeing. On 5 July, the Russians brought in the BARS-13 and the 68th Tank Regiment to prevent a collapse, while sending what’s left of the 57th Motor Rifle to counterattack south of the village. That didn’t really work because the 3rd Assault attacked into southern Klishchivka. Around the same time, the 28th Mech then crossed the Siversky Donets-Donbass Canal, caused heavy losses to the 4th and 14th Motor Rifle Brigades, and entered Kurdiumivka and Ozananivka, few kilometres further south.
At least it’s so that through 6 July, Ukrainians consolidated all of their newly-won positions, while the Russians spent that and the following day by bringing yet additional reinforcements to the combat zone (the 80th Motor Rifle Regiment and the 1307th Motor Rifle Battalion, just for example).
Avdiivka & Mariinka….the, reportedly, heaviest Russian assaults of the last week took place on 2-3-4 July in the area between Avdiivka and Mariinka, especially from Pisky on Pervomaiske, and in western Marinka. That said, except for ‘particularly heavy attacks’, Ukrainian videos of 10-hours-long trench fights, and the Russian complaints about ‘additional meat attacks’, neither side released lots of details. As far as can be said by now, the VSRF attacked with a total of some two motor rifle regiments and one mechanised brigade, but every single of few dozens of assaults failed – and this although receiving significant artillery support, and some 20-30 air strikes by Su-25s a day. Cannot but agree with Girkin: this is looking like if the Russian I Army Corps is keen to destroy whatever is left of ‘Separatist’ units (and those of unlucky Russian mobiks, used to ‘refill’ the same).
SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA (& SOUTH-WESTERN DONETSK)
In total, the ZSU has completely switched to its ‘commando-raid’ assault tactics. Which is: it’s infiltrating and then assaulting Russian strongholds by small groups of infantry. If these manage to approach unobserved, they’re usually overpowering- or prompting Russian garrison into panicky withdrawals. Some 15-20 minutes later, there’s then usually vicious reaction from the Russian artillery (see: shelling own positions that were lost). This in turn is enabling Ukrainian artillery (as far as this has enough shells), HIMARS/MLRS’, and/or the PSU (MiG-29s with JDAM-ERs) to hit the Russian artillery pieces. If they’re successful in this, Ukrainians then rush to reinforce their penetration, while the Russians are rushing their reserves forward and counterattacking.
The outcome usually depends on quality of command and training. Some of ZSU units are simply better at this, others are still learning their lessons and thus experiencing bigger problems and – sometimes – higher losses, too. Unsurprisingly, there are people within ranks of ZSU officers, wondering about the sense and purpose of assigning all the new weapons systems of Western origins to newly-established units, instead to ‘old’ and combat-proven ones…
Orikhiv… I think it can be said the week began with the ZSU widening its frontline by attacking Nestrianka (south-west of Orikhiv, defended by the 503rd Motor Rifle Regiment), and reinforcing its push on Verbove, so to force the Russians to thin out their units where it matters the most. Instead the Russians reacted by bringing the 1430th Motor Rifle Regiment from Novoprokopivka to counterattack and recover positions of the mauled 70th Motor Rifle Regiment, north-west of Robotyne. Didn’t really work, for either side. For the Russians because Ukrainian air strikes with JDAM-ERs have decimated the supporting artillery. For Ukrainians, because fresh Russian troops were in the way. That said, Ukrainians didn’t sit down to cry, but attacked the hill north-east of Kopani (where they’ve reached the 2nd Russian Defence Line), defended by the BARS-11 and the Tsar Wolves PMC, ‘instead’. From there, Ukrainians turned east, and drove into the western flank of the Russian defences of Robotyne, causing heavy losses to the 291st Motor Rifle Regiment. Latest news is that the ZSU then ‘penetrated’ (or, more likely: raided) positions of the 70th Motor Rifle Regiment, causing it yet additional heavy losses before being stopped by a severe thunderstorm, yesterday.
Perhaps more importantly: the VSRF losses in this area have reached a point where the Russians are meanwhile bringing their next – and last – operational reserve in southern Zaporizhzhya, the 35th CAA, to the area between Novoprokopivka and Basan. Which is just as good, because this is now blasted by Ukrainian artillery.
BTW No.1: just how effective the ‘commando raids’ by the ZSU infantry can get, is obvious from what these survivors of the company that used to defend Novodarivka, until 1-2 July, have to say. Over 50% casualties…
BTW No. 2: of interest is that the VKS is all the time bombing Mala Tokmachka with MPKs and UMPKs, plus BM-27s and BM-30s, and by Lancets, and that the village is intensively monitored by the Russian UAVs. Apparently, it was in this area that the ZSU suffered its first confirmed loss of a British-made AS-90 self-propelled howitzer. At the same time, Ukrainians are reporting a strong concentration of Russian forces in Kermenchik: supposedly, these have grouped a tank battalion and something like 3-5 motor rifle battalions there. Whether for some sort of counterattack, or in expectation of a bigger Ukrainian assault in that direction – no idea. We’re going to see. I’m just sure of one thing: ‘big trenches and anti-tank obstacles’ are NOT marking anything like ‘1st Russian Defence Line’. The 1st Defence Line is on the frontline. Everything further behind was constructed as, a) Maskirovka, and b) ‘fall-back-line’. I.e. these long lines of trenches are the ‘2nd Line’; one to which the VSRF is planning to withdraw when its 1st Line collapses. Which in turn confirms that one can’t measure the ZSU’s advance by how much of any kind of ‘trench line’ has it reached, i.e. how many kilometres did it advance: the only way to measure it success right now is by how much damage is it causing to the Russians. How many of these are getting killed, how many vehicles and guns destroyed…
Funny to read ‘reports’ by US ‘journalists’ explaining how ‘useless’ are German-made Panzerhaubitze 2000s, and explaining this with them breaking down too often. Actually, it turned out their Ukrainian crews are - regularly - shooting up to 4,000-5,000 shells from their tubes made to ‘survive’ some 1,000 shots…. Ah yes and: pay attention at the ‘Igel Zusatzpanzerung’ (Igel add-on armour) on the turret roof of this one. Essentially, that’s consisting of sticks of hard rubber, which are detonating warheads of such stuff like Lancets prematurely.
Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka…the ZSU’s grinding through the forest between Pryyutne and Staromaiorske is starting to pay off: since some 3-4 days, Ukrainians are squeezing Pryyutne from both west (36th Naval Infantry) and east (31st Mech), and attacking what’s left of the 60th Motor Rifle Brigade VSRF in the Staromaiorske-Urozhaine conglomeration both from west (35th Naval Infantry) and east (35th Naval Infantry and 4th Tank). They seem to be at least on the verge of Pryyutne, if not already inside (think to have seen a video shown a sizeable depot of mortar ammo, captured there….can’t find the link any more). Indeed, I was expecting them to liberate this place by now; instead, the Russians claimed to have counterattacked the place, on 8 July, and thus the fighting is still going on.
In the case of Staromaiorske: it appears that the ZSU is not trying to directly assault the place. Thanks to possession of high grounds west of the latter village, the place became perfect to continue smashing the defending Russians – and all the reinforcements they’re still sending there in big numbers. Fine with the ZSU, I would say.
Further east, Ukrainians (37th Naval Infantry) have also resumed their attacks on Novodonetske and Kermenchyk.
Notably, through all this time, the Russian command is not moving the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade from Volodyne, where this is sitting, doing nothing, and waiting for over a month, already. This is unusual for the recent style of the Russian command: after all, three weeks ago they’ve rushed most of the 127th Motor Rifle Division northwards, in attempt to save the situation in this area. But, now it seems somebody there is not sure his/their lines further north are going to hold out for much longer?
Of course, there was fighting in plenty of other areas - especially, apparently, in the Oleshky area, where the Russians failed to destroy the Ukrainian bridgehead, but continue pounding it by all the means on their hand. Tom Cooper
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…..,.,and the Kerch Strait Bridge has possibly been hit once more. Initial reports suggest a span has gone on the road bridge and the rail section is untouched.
https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/ ... d-governor
https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/ ... d-governor
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Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
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End of Month 17 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and Wagner has withdrawn from the conflict following a mutiny that cost Russia several aircraft and many generals in the subsequent purge.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Belarus, Wagner established a camp near the Ukraine border with a second camp reportedly being established close to the Polish border following their march towards Moscow . Wagner troops have begun training the Belarusian Army whilst Poland moved several units from the West of the country to the East.
In Luhansk, Russia undertook an offensive to push back Ukrainian forces to the Oskil River, reportedly reaching the outskirts of Torske and entering Novoselivske. Some ground was taken in the forests South of Kreminna. At the end of the month Russia managed two bridgeheads across the Zherebts River (a smaller river running parallel to the East of the Oskil)
In Donetsk, Ukrainian forces advanced North and South of Bakhmut, taking the strategic heights above Klischiivka. As of writing Russia is heavily reinforcing the town. In Adviika and Vuhledar there were attacks by both sides with only minor changes in territory.
In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine pushed further South throughout the month however were largely held-up by dense mine-fields. Ukraine spent much of the month attritting Russian forces, notably artillery through counter-battery fire, and clearing paths through the mines. The strategy is showing success, however is creating shortages of 155mm ammunition. The introduction of cluster munitions is partly in response to the demand created by this strategy. In Berdyansk, Lt. General Tsokov of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army was killed, reportedly as a result of a Storm Shadow strike.
In Kherson, the Ukrainians maintain a bridge-head on the left bank of the Dnipro, expanding their control to further islands on the left-bank. Russian forces tried to dislodge the Ukrainians, however were unsuccessful so changed strategy to contain the bridgehead.
In Odessa, there were, and continue to be, large missile and drone strikes targeting grain export and port facilities at Odessa.
In Crimea, logistics were targeted throughout the month, with two large ammunition dumps and the Kerch Strait Bridge hit. The road portion of the bridge is expected to be unsuitable for logistics for several months. The train portion of the bridge continues to function though rail is currently halted due to crossing within 2.5km of the most recent ammunition dump strike (evacuations within a 5km radius of the dump were undertaken).
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Belarus, Wagner established a camp near the Ukraine border with a second camp reportedly being established close to the Polish border following their march towards Moscow . Wagner troops have begun training the Belarusian Army whilst Poland moved several units from the West of the country to the East.
In Luhansk, Russia undertook an offensive to push back Ukrainian forces to the Oskil River, reportedly reaching the outskirts of Torske and entering Novoselivske. Some ground was taken in the forests South of Kreminna. At the end of the month Russia managed two bridgeheads across the Zherebts River (a smaller river running parallel to the East of the Oskil)
In Donetsk, Ukrainian forces advanced North and South of Bakhmut, taking the strategic heights above Klischiivka. As of writing Russia is heavily reinforcing the town. In Adviika and Vuhledar there were attacks by both sides with only minor changes in territory.
In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine pushed further South throughout the month however were largely held-up by dense mine-fields. Ukraine spent much of the month attritting Russian forces, notably artillery through counter-battery fire, and clearing paths through the mines. The strategy is showing success, however is creating shortages of 155mm ammunition. The introduction of cluster munitions is partly in response to the demand created by this strategy. In Berdyansk, Lt. General Tsokov of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army was killed, reportedly as a result of a Storm Shadow strike.
In Kherson, the Ukrainians maintain a bridge-head on the left bank of the Dnipro, expanding their control to further islands on the left-bank. Russian forces tried to dislodge the Ukrainians, however were unsuccessful so changed strategy to contain the bridgehead.
In Odessa, there were, and continue to be, large missile and drone strikes targeting grain export and port facilities at Odessa.
In Crimea, logistics were targeted throughout the month, with two large ammunition dumps and the Kerch Strait Bridge hit. The road portion of the bridge is expected to be unsuitable for logistics for several months. The train portion of the bridge continues to function though rail is currently halted due to crossing within 2.5km of the most recent ammunition dump strike (evacuations within a 5km radius of the dump were undertaken).
Ukraine War, 27 July 2023: Robotyne & Staromaiorske
1.) As far as is known by now, what's left of the ‘Russian garrison’ of Staromaiorske (south of Velyka Novoselivka, in south-western Donetsk) has capitulated yesterday evening.
That is: some survivors tried to run away, but many of them run into their own minefields; others melted away, and those that were still around have had enough and gave up.
Ukrainian naval infantry is mopping up the area between that place and Urozhaine.
2.) East/south-east of Robotyne, the ZSU continued pushing through in southern direction and widened its penetration by clearing additional Russian positions on the eastern flank of the same.
Today, another ‘major success’ was reported from this area, but more about this when the time comes.
With this, the ZSU is actually through the Russian 2nd Line of Defence in this area (which is precisely why it attacked so stubbornly in the Robotyne area: this is the place where there are ‘just a few kilometres’ between the Russian ‘1st Line’ and ‘2nd Line’: elsewhere, they are much more distant from each other).
Generally, it seems the Russians are starting to feel the effects of all the massive losses their troops have taken the last 1,5 months, of Ukrainian strikes on their headquarters, storage depots, and bridges in the rear. There are ever more reports about Russian commanders ‘stuffing the frontline full’ of troops (say: 100 per 100 metres of the frontline), like if this could stop Ukrainians. Actually, it’s just making the Russians perfect targets for all sorts of Ukrainian arms. There are also ever more reports about shortages of ammunition and supplies.
Of course, Russians are claiming ‘assaults by 100 tanks’ and ‘50 destroyed’ and ‘massive Ukrainian losses’. However, the only evidence for these are ever additional videos from early June: in some cases, it turns out back then they’ve recorded the same attack on the same M2/M3 Bradley with 7-8 different cameras. So, every week, they release another take of the very same scene…
Actually, the VSRF is meanwhile short on reserve units and on the best way of losing control of this battle.
Tom Cooper
1.) As far as is known by now, what's left of the ‘Russian garrison’ of Staromaiorske (south of Velyka Novoselivka, in south-western Donetsk) has capitulated yesterday evening.
That is: some survivors tried to run away, but many of them run into their own minefields; others melted away, and those that were still around have had enough and gave up.
Ukrainian naval infantry is mopping up the area between that place and Urozhaine.
2.) East/south-east of Robotyne, the ZSU continued pushing through in southern direction and widened its penetration by clearing additional Russian positions on the eastern flank of the same.
Today, another ‘major success’ was reported from this area, but more about this when the time comes.
With this, the ZSU is actually through the Russian 2nd Line of Defence in this area (which is precisely why it attacked so stubbornly in the Robotyne area: this is the place where there are ‘just a few kilometres’ between the Russian ‘1st Line’ and ‘2nd Line’: elsewhere, they are much more distant from each other).
Generally, it seems the Russians are starting to feel the effects of all the massive losses their troops have taken the last 1,5 months, of Ukrainian strikes on their headquarters, storage depots, and bridges in the rear. There are ever more reports about Russian commanders ‘stuffing the frontline full’ of troops (say: 100 per 100 metres of the frontline), like if this could stop Ukrainians. Actually, it’s just making the Russians perfect targets for all sorts of Ukrainian arms. There are also ever more reports about shortages of ammunition and supplies.
Of course, Russians are claiming ‘assaults by 100 tanks’ and ‘50 destroyed’ and ‘massive Ukrainian losses’. However, the only evidence for these are ever additional videos from early June: in some cases, it turns out back then they’ve recorded the same attack on the same M2/M3 Bradley with 7-8 different cameras. So, every week, they release another take of the very same scene…
Actually, the VSRF is meanwhile short on reserve units and on the best way of losing control of this battle.
Tom Cooper
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