Ukraine
It's all about tactics and logistics in what is a war of attrition.
The 155 was wiped out (confirmed by Russian military). It seems that a minefirld was cleaned, the armour moved in and then more mines spread by Ukrainian FASCAM artillery (mine laying guns from far away).
Russian logistics are improving, but still have way long supply lines compared to Ukraine- still relying on train network, which is vulnernable to partisan/SF sabotage.
The numbers of troops is kinda overestimated imo, Russia can have 10x as many men without a real advantage on away soil, especially when they are sent in human waves as cannon fodder. The Wagner, Chechen and other merc groups could easily become a liability (if not already) and turn in on each other- as has been reported. The DPR separatists must also be starting to ask themseles whether this is worth it, possibly splitting that side.
Russia does have the skies- able to make life miserable for the whole of Ukraine, along with the fairly innaccurate but brutal artlllery barrages and more Iranian drones.
Rasputitsa- the Slavic mud will halt any heavy movement in the next few weeks (remember how that was a fuck up during the 2022 invasion- Putin had 2-3 week window to get it done).
Summer will see some serious fighting, and unless concessions are made, we'll be looking at a similar situation in Feb 2024.
For those who say 'numbers' look at Bosnia war (nearly 4 years), Chechnya I and II, (10 years+ in total), Afghanistan (loads of years).
Ukraine can't surrender, Russia won't back down. Maybe a million+ will die, in Europe, in the 2020s.
The 155 was wiped out (confirmed by Russian military). It seems that a minefirld was cleaned, the armour moved in and then more mines spread by Ukrainian FASCAM artillery (mine laying guns from far away).
Russian logistics are improving, but still have way long supply lines compared to Ukraine- still relying on train network, which is vulnernable to partisan/SF sabotage.
The numbers of troops is kinda overestimated imo, Russia can have 10x as many men without a real advantage on away soil, especially when they are sent in human waves as cannon fodder. The Wagner, Chechen and other merc groups could easily become a liability (if not already) and turn in on each other- as has been reported. The DPR separatists must also be starting to ask themseles whether this is worth it, possibly splitting that side.
Russia does have the skies- able to make life miserable for the whole of Ukraine, along with the fairly innaccurate but brutal artlllery barrages and more Iranian drones.
Rasputitsa- the Slavic mud will halt any heavy movement in the next few weeks (remember how that was a fuck up during the 2022 invasion- Putin had 2-3 week window to get it done).
Summer will see some serious fighting, and unless concessions are made, we'll be looking at a similar situation in Feb 2024.
For those who say 'numbers' look at Bosnia war (nearly 4 years), Chechnya I and II, (10 years+ in total), Afghanistan (loads of years).
Ukraine can't surrender, Russia won't back down. Maybe a million+ will die, in Europe, in the 2020s.
All reports suggest that Russian forces have suffered catastrophic losses in the ongoing battle for Bakhmut.
Wagner PMC is no longer being supplied by the Russian military. VDV (restructured) also have heavy losses and have been withdrawing heavy equipment, as have some artillery units.
The Ukrainians most also be losing a lot, but might have regained initiative and reports are that a counterattack is underway:
- North: in the Paraskoviivka area,
- East: along the Patrice Lumumba Street,
- South: in the Optyne area.
Serious fighting is reported from the ‘Berkhivka’ area about 10km north of Bakhmut. The Russians are said to have taken the place, then Ukrainians pushed them out, and now Russians are attacking again.
Wagner PMC is no longer being supplied by the Russian military. VDV (restructured) also have heavy losses and have been withdrawing heavy equipment, as have some artillery units.
The Ukrainians most also be losing a lot, but might have regained initiative and reports are that a counterattack is underway:
- North: in the Paraskoviivka area,
- East: along the Patrice Lumumba Street,
- South: in the Optyne area.
Serious fighting is reported from the ‘Berkhivka’ area about 10km north of Bakhmut. The Russians are said to have taken the place, then Ukrainians pushed them out, and now Russians are attacking again.
Seeing President Biden in Kyiv must really grind Putin's gears.
"Goodness me! Now STD free..."
- Prahok
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I believe Putin is making a 'state of the nation' address today. Speculation is rife, as per usual, however it may amount to nothing if past addresses are anything to go by.
The Russians are throwing everything at Bakhmut at the moment and making some ground, albeit at great cost. Perhaps they want a result by the 24th of Feb, which will mark one year since Russian tanks rolled across the border from Belarus.
It's grinding more gears at home, tbh
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/389
Washington, DC – Some right-wing United States Republicans are slamming Joe Biden’s visit to Ukraine, invoking crises at home that they accuse the president of ignoring as he pledges support for Kyiv.
josephsmith wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:28 amIt's grinding more gears at home, tbh
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/389
Washington, DC – Some right-wing United States Republicans are slamming Joe Biden’s visit to Ukraine, invoking crises at home that they accuse the president of ignoring as he pledges support for Kyiv.
Nobody but an increasingly dwindling bunch of MAGA freaks cares what those twats think.
As for the Russian reaction I guess we will see when Putin speaks today. However, a year after the war kicked off it must gall Putin to see Biden there while he himself remains as far away from Kiev as ever.
Twaddle. Most Americans would prefer the billions being spent on an unnecessary war be spent on education, healthcare, infrastructure, the border issue, assisting vets, and possibly helping victims of the toxic spill in East Palestine, etc.Guest wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:13 pmNobody but an increasingly dwindling bunch of MAGA freaks cares what those twats think.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... he-nation/
Only 37% agree with helping Ukraine. That's not a majority.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/s ... -poll-says
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End of Week 52 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and almost a year has passed since this phase of the War begun. Symbolism is order of the day with Biden undertaking a charm offensive in Kyiv and Putin addressing the nation in Moscow.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. Biden visited Kyiv whilst air-raid sirens sounded due to Russian Mig-29s taking position over Belarus. No missiles were fired into Kyiv during the visit.
In Belarus, there were no reported changes to the posture of Russian or Belarusian troops. Lukashenka invited Biden to Minsk, however the offer was not taken up. Belarus yesterday complained of a build-up of Ukrainian troops on its border, though this may be a reference to Ukrainian exercises underway near Chernobyl.
In Luhansk, fighting continued with few changes on the ground over the week. Ukrainian forces appear to have absorbed the initial push, with reportedly some Ukrainian counter-attacks near Svatove and South of Kreminna undertaken. The area across the Oskil river from Dvorichna appears the area where Russia is having the most success. It is unclear the state of reserves Russia holds in this theatre, though a large portion of the Russian Airforce appears to remain in reserve.
In Donetsk, Russia continues to press Bakhmut, most successfully in the North whilst suffering some reversals to the South and East. Ukraine’s position in the city is under increased strain however as of writing they have yet to withdraw. Wagner PMC are declining in importance in this theatre, with Prigozhin reportedly accusing the Russian Ministry of Defence of starving them of equipment. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/ ... son-a80295 In Adviika and Vuhledar, Russian offenses continue with little change on the ground.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were no changes on the ground.
In Kherson, there were no changes on the ground.
In Moldova, there were pro-Russian protests and the new Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, raised the issue of Russian troops in Transnistria and the desire for their removal.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. Biden visited Kyiv whilst air-raid sirens sounded due to Russian Mig-29s taking position over Belarus. No missiles were fired into Kyiv during the visit.
In Belarus, there were no reported changes to the posture of Russian or Belarusian troops. Lukashenka invited Biden to Minsk, however the offer was not taken up. Belarus yesterday complained of a build-up of Ukrainian troops on its border, though this may be a reference to Ukrainian exercises underway near Chernobyl.
In Luhansk, fighting continued with few changes on the ground over the week. Ukrainian forces appear to have absorbed the initial push, with reportedly some Ukrainian counter-attacks near Svatove and South of Kreminna undertaken. The area across the Oskil river from Dvorichna appears the area where Russia is having the most success. It is unclear the state of reserves Russia holds in this theatre, though a large portion of the Russian Airforce appears to remain in reserve.
In Donetsk, Russia continues to press Bakhmut, most successfully in the North whilst suffering some reversals to the South and East. Ukraine’s position in the city is under increased strain however as of writing they have yet to withdraw. Wagner PMC are declining in importance in this theatre, with Prigozhin reportedly accusing the Russian Ministry of Defence of starving them of equipment. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/ ... son-a80295 In Adviika and Vuhledar, Russian offenses continue with little change on the ground.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were no changes on the ground.
In Kherson, there were no changes on the ground.
In Moldova, there were pro-Russian protests and the new Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, raised the issue of Russian troops in Transnistria and the desire for their removal.
The development in Moldova is very interesting. It seems they are pretty confident Russia will win. It could, however, be staged by anti-Russian actors, to support the Zelensky narrative that Russia wants the whole world and will not stop with part of Ukraine.
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Moldova is indeed interesting; civil institutions, the economy and the military are all relatively weak however a surge in support from Europe is seeing them strengthened. If Russia wanted to foment unrest it needs to move rather quickly.gizzardsnrice wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:16 amThe development in Moldova is very interesting. It seems they are pretty confident Russia will win. It could, however, be staged by anti-Russian actors, to support the Zelensky narrative that Russia wants the whole world and will not stop with part of Ukraine.
A large portion of the population have pro-Russian leanings, however the strength of that sentiment is questionable as is the trend in sentiment which is steadily becoming pro-Europe.
One of the concerns expressed by Moldova is that Russia will try to return the country to client-state status. This would divert Romanian & EU attention and result in Ukraine having to transfer reserves to its South Western region, reducing its ability to conduct a large counter-offensive in the South and East. The forces Russia has in Transnistria are too weak to attract such attention, regardless the level of posturing they undertake.
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The Russian MOD stated Ukrainian forces intend to attack Transnistria and the Kremlin changed their policy regarding Moldova's right to solve the issue of Transnistria. https://tass.com/defense/1580745 Russian milibloggers are discussing a Ukrainian build-up of forces along the Moldovan border, however there is no such reports from Moldovan or Ukrainian sources.
The Moldovan Prime Minister earlier cited a concern that Russian forces will try to take the airport in Chisinau.
The odds are all of this is bluster and bullshit from all concerned. For the sake of those in Moldova, let's hope that is the case.
The Moldovan Prime Minister earlier cited a concern that Russian forces will try to take the airport in Chisinau.
The odds are all of this is bluster and bullshit from all concerned. For the sake of those in Moldova, let's hope that is the case.
Interesting Docu/Propaganda released by Ukraine marking the anniversary of the SMO
"Goodness me! Now STD free..."
https://meduza.io/amp/en/news/2023/02/2 ... -in-norwayFormer Wagner Group fighter charged with assaulting a police officer in Norway
In Norway, police arrested Andrey Medvedev, a former Wagner mercenary, who fled Russia and sought political asylum, for drunken brawling.
According to investigators, a drunk 26-year-old Medvedev got into a fight with an unnamed man near a bar. When police arrived, Medvedev resisted arrest and then kicked one of the police officers.
Medvedev will remain at large until a court hearing, scheduled for May 25, according to Gulagu.net.
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