Ukraine
RT reporting Bakhmut has been completely captures
https://www.rt.com/russia/576642-russia ... movsk-mod/
https://www.rt.com/russia/576642-russia ... movsk-mod/
- chkai chgout
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One man's meat is another man's poison.
- Prahok
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As I understand it, Wagner were slowly advancing within the city the entire time, however the tactics were highly attritional. As a result, Wagner pulled in forces from different parts of the theatre to reinforce depleted Wagner units within the urban centre. Russia Ministry of Defence (MOD) pulled units from Adviika, Marinka & Vulhedar to act as reserves for Wagner and to fill gaps on the flanks which Wagner vacated, resulting in a cessation of the offensives in these theatres. Some of these units were heavily depleted from fighting elsewhere and most were under-resourced in terms of anti-armour, armour and artillery.
Poor communication & coordination between MOD & Wagner left several MOD units exposed, which Ukrainian forces took advantage of, resulting in an exchange of territory North and South of Bakhmut. It would appear these counter-attacks continue,
By withdrawing from other parts of the theatre and concentrating its forces, Wagner continued to grind forward in Bakhmut.
Currently it would appear Ukraine still holds a small section of the city in the SW corner, though whether this is just to hold the line whilst units withdraw to more favourable positions is unknown. For all intensive purposes, Russia holds Bakhmut.
From statements made to Russian media, it appears Prigozhin wants Wagner well clear of active theatres before the anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive.
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The city seemed of little strategic value and yet Ukraine defended it to the death. Everyone loves an underdog but Ukraine's steadfast and staunch 'philosophy' comes at a very high cost.Prahok wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2023 1:58 pmAs I understand it, Wagner were slowly advancing within the city the entire time, however the tactics were highly attritional. As a result, Wagner pulled in forces from different parts of the theatre to reinforce depleted Wagner units within the urban centre. Russia Ministry of Defence (MOD) pulled units from Adviika, Marinka & Vulhedar to act as reserves for Wagner and to fill gaps on the flanks which Wagner vacated, resulting in a cessation of the offensives in these theatres. Some of these units were heavily depleted from fighting elsewhere and most were under-resourced in terms of anti-armour, armour and artillery.
Poor communication & coordination between MOD & Wagner left several MOD units exposed, which Ukrainian forces took advantage of, resulting in an exchange of territory North and South of Bakhmut. It would appear these counter-attacks continue,
By withdrawing from other parts of the theatre and concentrating its forces, Wagner continued to grind forward in Bakhmut.
Currently it would appear Ukraine still holds a small section of the city in the SW corner, though whether this is just to hold the line whilst units withdraw to more favourable positions is unknown. For all intensive purposes, Russia holds Bakhmut.
From statements made to Russian media, it appears Prigozhin wants Wagner well clear of active theatres before the anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive.
I no longer think there is a counter-offensive, unless it involves outside help, not just the donated arms.
- chkai chgout
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- Prahok
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When there are Leopards, Challengers and Bradleys heavily engaged in combat we'll know the counter-offensive is on.Dylan Quint wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2023 2:31 pmI no longer think there is a counter-offensive, unless it involves outside help, not just the donated arms.
In all likelihood it has begun, however is at the stage where Russian logistics and command is being degraded.
If anything is to be learned from Russia's Winter/Spring offensive, it is that nothing is guaranteed.
It could be a trap. The meat grinder has run it's course and ZSU could counter from the north or send forces towards Donetsk/Mariupol. VSRF/Wagner cannot afford to lose Bakhmut, well not quickly, so will spend time trying to fortify a frontline that is fairly unimportant, ZSU can keep them busy with minor incursions and artillery.
Retaking Crimea would be the coup de grace in the conflict, so I suspect the Ukrainian spring (now summer) offensive would be to try to cut off the Southern corridor, either by retaking lost territory or by making Russian positions untenable come next winter.
Retaking Crimea would be the coup de grace in the conflict, so I suspect the Ukrainian spring (now summer) offensive would be to try to cut off the Southern corridor, either by retaking lost territory or by making Russian positions untenable come next winter.
- Prahok
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The 'Free Russia Legion' along with the 'Russian Volunteer Corps' have reportedly entered Belgorod from Ukraine and captured four villages. There were earlier reports of bombardments, either artillery or mortar.
Whilst it is unlikely to constitute a national armed insurrection, it does add an additional dimension to the conflict.
It is unclear as to whether these anti-Putin Russian forces intend to defend captured territory, however their apparent composition (from the little information available) would suggest this would be difficult. It would appear they are aiming for a catalytic effect.
Whilst it is unlikely to constitute a national armed insurrection, it does add an additional dimension to the conflict.
It is unclear as to whether these anti-Putin Russian forces intend to defend captured territory, however their apparent composition (from the little information available) would suggest this would be difficult. It would appear they are aiming for a catalytic effect.
- Prahok
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End of Month 15 of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the ground has dried and Ukraine is applying increased pressure across much of the front.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. Missile strikes continued throughout the month, with a large ammunition depot hit near Khmelynystskyi.
In Belarus, there were no reported changes in the posture of Belarusian forces.
In Bryansk (Russia), an Su-34, Su-35 and two Mi-8 helicopters were shot down in one day. It is unclear as to whether this was the work of Ukrainian air-defence, insurgents/special forces with MANPADS or friendly fire.
In Belgorod (Russia), the Russian Volunteer Corps & Free Russia Legion launched an attack across the border from Sumy (Ukraine) and captured several villages within Russia. There are conflicting reports as to the current status of events as of the time of writing.
In Luhansk, there were reports of minor Ukrainian advances North East of Kupyansk. Fighting elsewhere continued unabated, particularly near Bilohorivka, with no notable changes of territory. Logistics infrastructure within Luhansk City was hit for the first time.
In Donetsk, reportedly Wagner forces withdrew from several parts of the front to enable continuation of efforts to fully capture Bakhmut, whilst Ukrainian counter-attacks pushed back Russia’s flanks, relieving pressure on supply routes. Ukraine claims to hold some buildings in the South West, with Progozhin declaring the city entirely taken. Russian efforts to capture Adviika, Vuhledar and Marinka all appear to have culminated, with Ukraine making minor gains West of Vuhledar.
In Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces evacuated much of the civilian population further South in preparation for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Minor Ukrainian advances were reported. Assassination activities by partisans on occupation officials continued, primarily in Melitopol.
In Kherson, the Oblast’s administration reportedly moved its records and staff from Skadovsk (in Southern Kherson Oblast) to Crimea. Fighting continues on the islands in the Dnieper, with reports of Russian forces being largely pushed off the remaining islands (not to say a Russian absence constitutes a Ukrainian presence).
In Crimea, explosions destroyed elements of logistics infrastructure throughout the month, including fuel depots and a train derailment.
In Moldova, Transnistrian authorities requested Russia to increase the number of troops present in the breakaway region. It is uncertain if Russia is willing to do so, or even able without Moldovan acquiescence.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. Missile strikes continued throughout the month, with a large ammunition depot hit near Khmelynystskyi.
In Belarus, there were no reported changes in the posture of Belarusian forces.
In Bryansk (Russia), an Su-34, Su-35 and two Mi-8 helicopters were shot down in one day. It is unclear as to whether this was the work of Ukrainian air-defence, insurgents/special forces with MANPADS or friendly fire.
In Belgorod (Russia), the Russian Volunteer Corps & Free Russia Legion launched an attack across the border from Sumy (Ukraine) and captured several villages within Russia. There are conflicting reports as to the current status of events as of the time of writing.
In Luhansk, there were reports of minor Ukrainian advances North East of Kupyansk. Fighting elsewhere continued unabated, particularly near Bilohorivka, with no notable changes of territory. Logistics infrastructure within Luhansk City was hit for the first time.
In Donetsk, reportedly Wagner forces withdrew from several parts of the front to enable continuation of efforts to fully capture Bakhmut, whilst Ukrainian counter-attacks pushed back Russia’s flanks, relieving pressure on supply routes. Ukraine claims to hold some buildings in the South West, with Progozhin declaring the city entirely taken. Russian efforts to capture Adviika, Vuhledar and Marinka all appear to have culminated, with Ukraine making minor gains West of Vuhledar.
In Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces evacuated much of the civilian population further South in preparation for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Minor Ukrainian advances were reported. Assassination activities by partisans on occupation officials continued, primarily in Melitopol.
In Kherson, the Oblast’s administration reportedly moved its records and staff from Skadovsk (in Southern Kherson Oblast) to Crimea. Fighting continues on the islands in the Dnieper, with reports of Russian forces being largely pushed off the remaining islands (not to say a Russian absence constitutes a Ukrainian presence).
In Crimea, explosions destroyed elements of logistics infrastructure throughout the month, including fuel depots and a train derailment.
In Moldova, Transnistrian authorities requested Russia to increase the number of troops present in the breakaway region. It is uncertain if Russia is willing to do so, or even able without Moldovan acquiescence.
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