The Houthis appear to be making steady advances once again as they've recaptured a swathe of coastline South of the major port of Hodeidah and are slowly moving up on the Coalition's last stronghold in the North, Marib.
If Marib falls that leaves only Taiz (currently contested, with the Coalition holding the centre and South) as the last contested city in what was once North Yemen.
There will be pressure on the Saudi backed Hadi Government from the UAE backed Southern Transitional Council to declare a ceasefire as the STC will effectively have what they want, a return of South Yemen. The Saudi's want out, as they are now 6 years into a war they thought would last several weeks and have found themselves under regular attack from Houthi ballistic missiles and drones,.
The question is whether the Houthi's will accept this or be emboldened to push on. There's a lot of open ground once you leave Marib and the Houthi's do better in the mountains which offers more respite from air assault.
The Coalition also have another problem to contend with. Their infighting (literally, UAE jets even bombed Hadi Government positions as the STC ousted the Hadi Government from Aden) has left a military and social vacuum in large parts of the South which has been filled by Al-Qaeda and ISIS. The areas under these groups' control needs to be taken back, and with forces constantly locking horns with the Houthis there appears insufficient manpower to do so.
Will the fall of Marib, likely to be a bloody affair, result in a cessation of hostilities and a chance to return Yemen to some sense of normality, or even a return to North and South Yemen? It's a question whose answer may well be on the horizon.
https://yemen.liveuamap.com/
Yemen
The increase in air support and munitions from the UAE have helped the anti-Houthi forces regain some of the territory they lost recently South and West of Marib. The subsequent attacks on UAE are, however, a development they were not counting on. Now UAE is facing a similar situation to Saudi where it is being targeted and as a result they are upping their support for the Southern Transitional Council forces.
It is unclear as to what this will mean on the ground in the medium term. More strife for civilians, that much is clear and possibly a closer policy alignment with Saudi.
The Houthis appear to be playing a longer game, raising the cost of UAE's participation. Whether this weakens or strengthens UAE's resolve remains to be seen.
It is unclear as to what this will mean on the ground in the medium term. More strife for civilians, that much is clear and possibly a closer policy alignment with Saudi.
The Houthis appear to be playing a longer game, raising the cost of UAE's participation. Whether this weakens or strengthens UAE's resolve remains to be seen.
" more strife for civilians..." is certainly an understatement, with famine for the last five years of civil war.
Ironic how the WHO wants to get everyone vaccinated asap to avoid a humanitarian disaster but don't give any priority to humanity's other pressing issues.
Ironic how the WHO wants to get everyone vaccinated asap to avoid a humanitarian disaster but don't give any priority to humanity's other pressing issues.
Not particularly. Saudi, UAE & the USA all appear to have different song sheets.lettucealone wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 12:23 pmDo you not think the UAE's resolve is more determined by another puppet master nation's interests, rather than being determined by the UAE's inherent interests?
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khmerhit
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I guess I'll have to postpone my long-contemplated trip to Socotra again. The UAE has taken over there, so I have read.
Joined: '03; Member 39. Funny Quote: Prince Phillip to a driving Instructor in Scotland: "How do you keep the natives off the booze long enough to get them to pass the test?"
Thanks khmerhit, I'd never heard of Socotra before. Nature looks very interesting!
From wikipedia: "The island received over 1,000 tourists each year until 2014." Doesn't sound like it was particularly overrun even before the war picked up. I'm not a big UAE fan, but if I find myself passing through, I'll definitely consider a short on-the cheap, one week side adventure to Socotra if it is possible.
From wikipedia: "The island received over 1,000 tourists each year until 2014." Doesn't sound like it was particularly overrun even before the war picked up. I'm not a big UAE fan, but if I find myself passing through, I'll definitely consider a short on-the cheap, one week side adventure to Socotra if it is possible.
Still a part of Yemen, I fear. Southern Transitional Council forces backed by UAE took control a while ago, though I believe the national government backed by Saudi in nominally in control.Guest9999 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:03 amThanks khmerhit, I'd never heard of Socotra before. Nature looks very interesting!
From wikipedia: "The island received over 1,000 tourists each year until 2014." Doesn't sound like it was particularly overrun even before the war picked up. I'm not a big UAE fan, but if I find myself passing through, I'll definitely consider a short on-the cheap, one week side adventure to Socotra if it is possible.
There have been several significant strikes by the Houthis on Saudi oil infrastructure. This is raising the stakes somewhat to say the least.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2 ... -by-attack
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2 ... -by-attack
The Saudis don't even take the US president's phone calls and the UAE has helped Iran launder billions of dollars much to the consternation of the US and the Saudis.Prahok wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:32 pmNot particularly. Saudi, UAE & the USA all appear to have different song sheets.lettucealone wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 12:23 pmDo you not think the UAE's resolve is more determined by another puppet master nation's interests, rather than being determined by the UAE's inherent interests?
Now the Saudis are negotiating with the Chinese to start pricing the oil they sell to China in yuan instead of dollars.
Different song sheets indeed.
How is that significant?Harold wrote: ↑Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:38 pmNow the Saudis are negotiating with the Chinese to start pricing the oil they sell to China in yuan instead of dollars.Prahok wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:32 pmNot particularly. Saudi, UAE & the USA all appear to have different song sheets.lettucealone wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 12:23 pmDo you not think the UAE's resolve is more determined by another puppet master nation's interests, rather than being determined by the UAE's inherent interests?
Different song sheets indeed.
I no you don’t no. Know way to no.
Off Topic
The dollar will lose a lot of value if OPEC starts selling oil in currencies other than the dollar. The Saudis have been pricing most of their oil sales in dollars for fifty years.
One reason why the US government has been able to get away with printing massive amounts of money is because of the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. If other countries start selling off their dollars then there will be massive inflation.
One reason why the US government has been able to get away with printing massive amounts of money is because of the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. If other countries start selling off their dollars then there will be massive inflation.
They’ve been “negotiating” for five years and even if they did it’d be run in parallel to the USD system not instead of.Harold wrote: ↑Sun Mar 27, 2022 7:47 amOff TopicThe dollar will lose a lot of value if OPEC starts selling oil in currencies other than the dollar. The Saudis have been pricing most of their oil sales in dollars for fifty years.
One reason why the US government has been able to get away with printing massive amounts of money is because of the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. If other countries start selling off their dollars then there will be massive inflation.
Not forgetting the small minor detail that the riyal (Saudis currency) is pegged to the dollar.
People have been predicting the demise of the USD for a long time.
OPEC isn’t just the Saudis. They are not in total control.
I no you don’t no. Know way to no.
